B[Domestic commodity futures closed mixed, crude oil rose more than 8%] On September 2, domestic commodity futures closed mixed, with some energy and chemical varieties opening higher and lower. Crude oil rose more than 8%, ethylene glycol rose nearly 6%, methanol and fuel oil rose more than 4%, pure benzene rose more than 3%, LU fuel and styrene rose nearly 3%, liquefied gas, container shipping lines, paraxylene rose more than 2%, PTA, staple fiber, asphalt, and pulp rose more than 1%. In terms of decline, palladium fell by nearly 5%, Shanghai silver and platinum fell by more than 3%, Shanghai tin and Shanghai gold fell by more than 2%, and coking coal, industrial silicon, No. 20 rubber, polysilicon, international copper, cotton, and caustic soda fell by more than 1%. B[Most domestic commodity futures closed up, with ethylene glycol up over 6%] On September 1, most domestic commodity futures closed up, with ethylene glycol up over 6%, methanol up over 5%, bottle flakes, asphalt, and PVC up over 4%, short fiber, PTA, crude oil, glass, and polysilicon up over 3%, styrene, Shanghai zinc, plastics, and pure benzene up over 2%, and ferrosilicon, pulp, liquefied gas, BR rubber, caustic soda, and fuel oil up over 1%. In terms of decline, palladium and red dates fell by more than 3%, Shanghai silver, apples, and pigs fell by more than 2%, and lithium carbonate and Shanghai gold fell by more than 1%. B[TD Securities: Warsh's hawkish turn will hit gold prices in the short term and may fall to $4,200 per ounce before the end of the year] On September 1, Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh's hawkish attitude towards the Fed's interest rate policy affected the upward trend of gold. Bart Melek, head of commodity research at TD Securities, recently pointed out that this stance may have a significant negative impact on gold in the short term. Melek's latest analysis said that the market interpreted this as the Fed is more likely to raise policy interest rates in September and December, which is very different from expectations before Warsh's speech. This speech also caused short-term interest rates to rise and the dollar to strengthen, causing gold prices to fall. He emphasized that traders had pushed up gold prices as financial conditions eased due to the recent U.S. Treasury Department intervention in long-term interest rates in the U.S. bond market. As a result, gold prices are likely to give back some of their recent gains and fall to the lower end of the $4,200 to $4,700 per ounce trading range by the end of the year. However, he also added that once inflation stabilizes, the Fed will be confident in gradually lifting its tightening policy to achieve its full employment goal, thus supporting TD Securities' gold price target for Q3 2027, which is for international gold prices to rise to $5,350 per ounce. B[Brokerage firms gathered "golden stocks" in four major industries in September, and institutions are optimistic about the value of core asset allocation] September 1st, judging from the "golden stock" portfolio recommended by brokerage firms in September, as of August 31, nearly 70 A-share and Hong Kong stock targets have been favored by brokerages, among which CATL and WuXi AppTec have attracted the most attention. Judging from the industry distribution of "golden stocks" among brokerage firms, industries such as electronics, machinery and equipment, pharmaceutical biology, and non-ferrous metals are favored. Looking forward to the market situation in September, industry insiders believe that under the combined influence of multiple factors, the short-term market is likely to maintain a range-bound trend. Stylistically, large cap value and small cap growth or dance together. In terms of specific allocations, we are currently optimistic about the value of gold and China's core asset allocations. Opportunities in dividend sectors and industries that are expected to bottom out are also worthy of attention. (China Securities Journal) A[Domestic commodity futures closed broadly higher: Energy and chemical sectors surged strongly Crude oil rose more than 7%] On August 31, domestic commodity futures closed broadly higher, with the energy and chemical sector leading the gains. Crude oil rose more than 7%, liquefied gas rose nearly 7%, coking coal rose more than 6%, methanol, bottle flakes, PVC, ethanol, etc. Diols rose by the daily limit, up 6%, plastics, pure benzene, styrene, and asphalt rose by more than 5%, fuel oil, PTA, coke, and BR rubber rose by more than 4%, lithium carbonate rose by more than 3%, and glass, palladium, and alumina rose by more than 2%. In terms of decline, Shanghai gold and Shanghai silver fell by more than 3%, while platinum and polysilicon fell by more than 2%. A[Thailand plans to strengthen supervision of gold trading and promote digitalization to curb money laundering and fraud] August 31st, Thailand plans to strengthen supervision of the gold trading industry, including online trading and physical gold bar trading, to curb money laundering, fraud and other financial crimes. Vinit Visessuvanapoom, director and spokesperson of the Fiscal Policy Office of the Thai Ministry of Finance, said that the Ministry of Finance is working with the Bank of Thailand to develop relevant legislation to strengthen supervision of the industry and improve transaction transparency. The government plans to promote the transformation of gold trading into a fully digital system, allowing regulators to track the source and destination of funds. The move aims to fill regulatory loopholes and help identify suspicious activity and verify the authenticity of transactions. “The key is to achieve full digitalization and make all information interconnected,” Vinit said. “This will enable the government to monitor the entire market and detect abnormal behavior immediately.” According to Vinit, the Ministry of Finance will take the lead in promoting this work and strive to issue relevant regulations as soon as possible. Currently, some policy recommendations and draft laws are ready.
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