Abstract:
According to predictions by Goldman Sachs, Anthropic’s lead underwriting investment bank, Anthropic’s revenue is expected to exceed US$600 billion by 2030, an increase of more than 130 times compared with last year’s revenue. The forecast model presented by Goldman Sachs to potential investors in the IPO shows that the company's total revenue this year is expected to be approximately US$52 billion, rising to US$136 billion in 2027, reaching US$442 billion in 2029, and further rising to more than US$600 billion in 2030. Anthropic's 2025 revenue will be $4.6 billion.
The forecast underscores the staggering growth expectations of the company, which is less than six years old. If the goal is achieved, the Claude large model developer will become one of the largest companies in the world in terms of revenue.
However, Goldman Sachs also judged that Anthropic will not achieve positive free cash flow until 2030, with free cash flow expected to be US$33.6 billion that year. Application documents show that Anthropic has committed to investing approximately US$900 billion in computing power procurement in the next few years.
Although Anthropic's free cash flow was once positive in the first three quarters of this year, Goldman Sachs predicts that free cash flow will be a net outflow of US$12.8 billion in the fourth quarter of 2026, and the net outflow will expand to US$65.7 billion in 2027.
Currently, Anthropic has officially launched its IPO road show, and Goldman Sachs verbally introduced this calculation model to investors during the road show. The maximum fundraising scale of this IPO can reach US$64 billion; if the price is priced at the upper limit of the indicated price range, the company's valuation will reach US$1.4 trillion.
Anthropic did not respond to a request for comment, and Goldman Sachs declined to comment.
Goldman Sachs was also the lead underwriter of the SpaceX IPO in June this year. Before SpaceX went public, the bank had predicted that its AI sector revenue would grow from US$3.2 billion in 2025 to US$322 billion in 2030.
Anthropic expects to complete its IPO before Thanksgiving in the United States. Just recently, the Democratic Party won control of Congress in the mid-term elections, and the market is worried that the slowdown in the construction of AI data centers may drag down tens of billions of dollars in related investments by technology giants and hyperscale cloud vendors.
Documents submitted to U.S. regulators for the IPO package last month showed that the company suffered a net loss of US$81 billion in the first half of this year, of which US$72 billion came from changes in the value of convertible bonds brought about by the increase in the company's valuation.
Goldman Sachs estimates that Anthropic's operating losses will peak in 2027, reaching US$40.4 billion; operating profits will turn positive in 2029, and operating profits in 2030 are expected to be US$65.2 billion.
If Goldman Sachs’ revenue forecast comes true, Anthropic’s revenue scale will rank among the top echelons in the world. Market consensus expectations (Visible Alpha) show that Amazon’s revenue this year is expected to reach approximately US$830 billion, and Nvidia’s revenue in 2027 is expected to be US$700 billion.
Documents disclosed by Anthropic on Tuesday showed that the annualized revenue run rate, which investors are focused on, reached $81 billion in October, an increase of $10 billion from the previous month.
Goldman Sachs’ calculation caliber includes both corporate and non-corporate revenue, and is different from the annual recurring revenue (ARR) indicator that Anthropic prefers to disclose: ARR only measures the company’s recurring revenue based on single-month performance, while Goldman Sachs’ model covers a wider area.
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