Abstract:
Demand for orders for TSMC's 2nm process is reported to continue to heat up. The Economic Daily, a subsidiary of Taiwan's United Daily News, quoted industry sources as saying that customers such as Apple, Nvidia, AMD and Qualcomm have recently made additional reservations for TSMC's 2nm family production capacity, and the order size has increased by about 10% to 20%. Based on this estimate, the report estimates that TSMC is accelerating its production expansion, and its monthly production capacity may rise to 120,000 pieces by the end of 2026, which is higher than the previous market estimate of 90,000 to 100,000 pieces.
Previous market forecasts for TSMC’s 2-nanometer monthly production capacity in 2027 ranged from approximately 110,000 to 140,000 pieces. If the latest estimate of 120,000 pieces by the end of the year comes true, it means that TSMC may hit the low end of the range earlier than originally expected, but it cannot be inferred that the upper limit of 140,000 pieces will also be achieved early. The relevant figures come from industry estimates and anonymous sources quoted by the media, and are not TSMC's officially announced production capacity commitments; monthly production capacity represents nominal production capacity, and is not equivalent to actual wafer shipments or the number of available chips.
TSMC official information confirms that the N2 process has entered mass production as planned in the fourth quarter of 2025, using the first-generation nanosheet transistor technology, focusing on improving performance and energy efficiency; the derivative process N2P is planned to be mass-produced in the second half of 2026. The company has not yet disclosed on its official website that its monthly N2 production capacity has reached 120,000 pieces. TSMC’s North American Technology Forum this year reportedly mentioned that five N2 factories will enter the production ramp-up stage in 2026, including two in Hsinchu and three in Kaohsiung. N2’s wafer output in the first year is expected to be 45% higher than N3’s first year, and the N2 production capacity annual compound growth rate target from 2026 to 2028 is about 70%.
The growth in demand is related to the expansion of artificial intelligence and high-performance computing chips. The 2nm process is more suitable for advanced chips with high performance and low power consumption, but the ramp-up process is still subject to equipment installation, process yield and customer product design cycles. Bank of America analysts also estimate that TSMC's 2-nanometer process revenue share may rise from about 3% in the second quarter to 11% in the third quarter, and expect advanced process capacity utilization to remain at a high level; this is also an analyst forecast, not the actual results announced by the company.
TSMC is in the stage of expanding production of advanced processes and competing for production capacity with customers. If the reported booking growth and production capacity estimates are accurate, it will help the company realize its production expansion plan early. However, currently public information can only confirm that N2 has been mass-produced and N2P will be promoted as planned in the second half of this year. The specific monthly production capacity, customer order allocation and production completion time are still to be further disclosed by TSMC.
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