According to Rebellion Research, a think tank focused on artificial intelligence (AI), Nvidia's stock price has soared so high this year that the semiconductor giant's current valuation level is reminiscent of the tulip bubble of the 17th century and the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s. So far this year, the stock price of AI chip giant Nvidia has surged more than 190% to $416.10, but the think tank said that the stock is currently seriously overvalued and may collapse at any time.
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Analysts at Rebellion Research wrote in the latest report: "Historically, financial markets have witnessed numerous
"Nvidia's recent stock performance appears to exhibit many of the hallmarks of this speculative bubble, fueled by rising enthusiasm for generative AI and soaring earnings. We think Nvidia is a great company... however, it may only be $300 a share," they added.
Rebellion Research is a global machine learning think tank, artificial intelligence financial consultant, and a hedge fund.
Generative AI programs like ChatGPT need to run on high-performance, dedicated graphics processing units (GPUs), and Nvidia has a huge share of this market. Investors piled on its shares after the latter posted stellar earnings results.
That gave Nvidia a trillion-dollar valuation and made it a member of the "Big Seven" group of large technology companies. But according to Rebellion, the "usefulness and profitability" of artificial intelligence remains to be seen, making Nvidia's stock price vulnerable at current levels.
The strategists warned in a note that the company is overvalued at current price-to-earnings ratios and that if
They wrote: “Based on historical P/E ratios, plus
Rebellion used probabilistic models to make market forecasts, comparing the chipmaker's valuation to several high-profile bubbles over the past 400 years.
These include the Dutch tulip craze of the 1730s, when contract prices for tulip bulbs soared, creating the first speculative financial bubble, and the bursting of the dot-com bubble, which triggered a massive sell-off in the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite from March 2000 to October 2002.
In fact, the agency is not the only one to issue warnings about Nvidia's stock price. Rob Arnott, the legendary investor and chairman of the investment institution Research Affiliates, warned earlier this month that Nvidia's stock had formed an asset bubble after its stunning rebound this year, and if the bubble burst, it could trigger a wider market collapse.
"Will Nvidia's collapse drag down the entire market? That's very possible," he said.