That morning, Yang Ke (pseudonym), who lives in the outer suburbs of Suzhou City, almost didn't fill up with gas: "The gas station is only two or three kilometers away from my home. Most of the time, I fill up on the way to and from get off work. But it suddenly closed that morning, and I didn't have much gas left in the tank." At the end of 2018, when buying a car, Yang Ke considered a new energy vehicle, but was worried about the inconvenience of charging, so he bought a traditional fuel vehicle. Unexpectedly, less than four years later, the gas station in front of my home would be closed. "Although the other gas station is not far away, it is not convenient to get to and from get off work. It is still not as convenient as before to go around a circle."

The closure of a gas station in 2022 is likely just the beginning, but it may also be that we have overestimated its symbolic significance.

There are fewer gas stations for more than one reason

The "Blue Book on the Development of China's Petroleum Distribution Industry (2022-2023)" shows that there will be approximately 107,600 gas stations across the country in 2022, a decrease of 0.11% from 107,700 in 2021; the decrease in the number of gas stations and the increase in highway mileage have led to a continued decrease in the density of gas stations.

This is the first time in the six years since the Blue Book was released that the number of gas stations has declined.

Many domestic observers expressed a mainstream view in interviews with the media: the rapid development of new energy vehicles has had an impact on the automobile energy consumption structure, and the demand for refueling has dropped, resulting in a reduction in the number of gas stations. Zhang Xiang, an industry analyst and visiting professor at the Yellow River Institute of Science and Technology, told Huxiu: "Now, the proportion of new energy vehicles has reached 5%. And online ride-hailing, taxis, and buses that have more mileage and greater fuel consumption have a larger proportion of new energy vehicles."

But looking across the country, the disappearance of a hundred gas stations is really inconspicuous. Huxiu contacted riders in more than ten cities including Beijing, Shanghai, and Changsha. Except for Yang Ke, no one noticed that the gas stations around them were closed.

The details that affect the direction of history are often ignored when it happens, but more often than not, people like to overestimate the significance of their own era to the future - we always hope that we are the ones who have witnessed historical shocks - "epoch-making products" and "disruptive innovations" are familiar sounds, but most of them are always quickly submerged in the long river of history.

If we doubt the theory that "new energy vehicles will eliminate gas stations", history can provide some support: about 20 years ago, the number of gas stations in the United States began to decrease; the number of gas stations in Japan reached 60,000 in 1994, and has continued to decrease since then, with less than 30,000 remaining by 2023; even earlier, Germany experienced a significant reduction in number in the early 1970s.

And all this occurred before the advent of the new energy vehicle era.

When interpreting the phenomenon of the first-mover countries, academic circles believe that: the number of gas stations in most countries has begun to decrease, which is exactly when the economy has entered a relatively stable (or even stagflation) period after rapid economic growth; after the opening of the refined oil market, a large amount of capital poured into oil and gas retail, the track became crowded, and profits declined, leading to the closure of some gas stations; environmental protection laws and regulations became stricter, and automobile energy consumption dropped significantly...

These factors may also occur in China, especially the last point.

Zhang Xiang explained: "The average fuel consumption of domestic passenger cars will drop to 5.0L/100km in 2020, and it is a general trend for the average fuel consumption of new passenger cars to reach about 4L per 100 kilometers in 2025. From 2016 to 2019, the average fuel consumption targets that car companies need to achieve are 6.7L, 6.4L, 6L, and 5.5L per 100 kilometers respectively."

Compared with the number of new energy vehicles from zero to 5%, the fuel consumption decline rate from 2016 to 2020 has reached 25%. The latter is the reason for the decline in the number of gas stations that cannot be ignored.

In addition, there are some factors that may lead to the decline in the number of gas stations in China. Zhang Xiang gave an example: "As more gas stations open 24 hours and the sales volume of single-seat gas stations increases, the number of gas stations may decrease; after the development of review apps, some gas stations with poor service quality and bad reputation will be more likely to be eliminated..."

Both of the above examples illustrate that the work efficiency of single-seat gas stations has improved, which is likely to be the reason for the further shrinkage of the number of gas stations in the future. China, in particular, has great potential for efficiency improvement. A paper published in "Business Management" in April 2013 pointed out that the number of service vehicles per station in my country's gas stations lags behind the world average, only half that of the United States and 1/5 that of the United Kingdom. In terms of fuel sales per station, the average sales volume of my country's gas stations is only one-third that of the United States.

It can be seen that the decrease in the number of gas stations and the rise of new energy vehicles are not the only reason, or even the main reason.

Gas stations have begun to transform

Obsolescence sometimes occurs in the blink of an eye, such as Nokia mobile phones. But upgrading may also take hundreds of years, such as tractors - even 20 years ago, cattle could still be seen in the paddy fields in southern my country, but tractors have been around for more than a hundred years; to this day, China has not been able to fully realize agricultural modernization. So there is no need to exaggerate the changes brought about by new energy vehicles.

However, in the long run, new energy vehicles will still face challenges for oil and gas retailers, including the possibility of further reducing the number of gas stations - if there are no fuel vehicles, it will be difficult for gas stations to sell traditional fuels.

Recently, the African country Ethiopia has become the first country in the world to ban the sale of fuel vehicles. The country’s Ministry of Transport and Logistics announced that it will ban the import of fuel vehicles and only allow electric vehicles. Over the past 20 years, Ethiopia has been investing heavily in energy infrastructure, 97% of which is renewable energy.

Timetables for banning the sale of traditional fuel vehicles in other countries are also being released, although some of them will be revised and postponed. For example, in the European Union, the ban on the sale of fuel vehicles approved by the European Council in 2023 will officially take effect. According to previously approved regulations, the sale of new fuel vehicles with non-zero carbon emissions will be prohibited in the EU from 2035.

In my country, the Hainan Province Clean Energy Vehicle Development Plan press conference held on March 5, 2023 announced that from 2030, Hainan Province will completely ban the sale of fuel vehicles. In terms of car companies, BYD has announced that it will stop producing fuel vehicles in 2022.

It is worth mentioning that although pure electric vehicles have made great progress nowadays, new energy vehicles are not equal to pure electric vehicles. Fuel cell vehicles, hydrogen fuel vehicles, plug-in hybrid vehicles, etc. also belong to the ranks of new energy vehicles.

But no matter what the future trend is, gas stations will not face difficulties, and may even usher in greater development opportunities because the business will increase. In 2022, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued the "Opinions on Improving the System, Mechanism and Policy Measures for Energy Green and Low-Carbon Transformation" to encourage traditional gas stations and gas stations to build integrated transportation energy service stations integrating oil, gas, electricity and hydrogen.

In fact, gas stations have long ceased to be traditional. This scenario has become a reality: go to a gas station to wash your car, and have a drink in a cafe while waiting. Extending to catering, shopping, after-car services and other businesses, many gas stations have transformed from energy supply stations into commercial complexes.

It’s hard to ignore the vast number of gas stations all over the country. Chain convenience stores 20 years ago would not have imagined that it would be Sinopec that would eventually surpass them in China. Relying on countless gas stations, Sinopec's Yijie has opened 28,000 convenience stores across the country.

However, adapting to changes is still a challenge for many gas stations. The contractor of a private gas station told Huxiu that he had no plans to open a convenience store because it was located in an urban area and there were many shops near his gas station. In addition, "Although everyone says that gas station profits have dropped, the profit margin of operating convenience stores is even lower."

Some industry insiders told Huxiu that the transformation of gas stations can be adapted to local conditions. "Not every gas station has to open cafes and convenience stores. Some can survive just by relying on charging, swapping and hydrogenation services."

But it is foreseeable that oil and gas retail sales will decrease with the decrease of traditional fuel vehicles. In the not-so-distant future, some gas stations may even only support charging, swapping and hydrogen refueling. For car owners who are still using traditional fuel vehicles, they may face the same problem as Yang Ke - refueling has become inconvenient.

Zhang Xiang said: "There may indeed be a critical point. When refueling becomes less convenient, people will be more willing to choose new energy vehicles, which will accelerate the withdrawal of traditional fuel vehicles from the stage of history."