Industry analyst Ming-Chi Kuo said sales of Apple's Vision Pro dropped quickly, but the pattern he reported was similar to every new Apple device, which starts selling out before demand stabilizes. On the first day of pre-sale, Apple's Vision Pro sold out within 18 minutes. When buyers saw the delivery time, it immediately began to stretch back to several weeks. Now, Ming-Chi Kuo has pointed out that Apple Vision Pro orders are taking 3-5 days to ship, saying this is because "demand for the device dropped rapidly (after launch) and then remained stable."
Ming-Chi Kuo wrote in his blog that shipment growth in the United States may be limited unless "Apple officially cuts prices...or has more attractive applications." Still, he expects "shipments this year to be between 200,000 and 250,000 units, which is better than Apple's original forecast of 150,000 to 200,000 units," but it's "still a niche market."
Ming-Chi Kuo pointed out that demand in the U.S. market is limited, which means Apple will have enough production capacity to accelerate the global release of Vision Pro.
"The actual release time will depend on Apple's plans for software modifications to comply with regulations in other countries," he said. "I still stand by my prediction that Apple may launch Vision Pro in more countries before WWDC this year."
He also explained that recently "several small-capacity suppliers" of Apple's VisionPro components "have expanded this year's production from 500,000 to 600,000 units to 700,000 to 800,000 units" and that Apple requires suppliers to do this in order to "shorten the delivery time after global launch."
Ming-Chi Kuo has pointed out many times that production capacity does not represent equipment shipments. "For example, the current iPhone assembly capacity is 250-300 million units per year, but actual shipments are much lower," he said.
The new report is based on Ming-Chi Kuo's sources in the industry, who also told him that Apple has "not officially begun" rolling out "low-priced versions with downgraded specifications (such as reducing the number of cameras, eliminating EyeSight, etc.)" as well as "new models with upgraded specifications."
Even so, he predicted that Apple's next Apple Vision Pro project is expected to start mass production in the fourth quarter of 2025 or the first quarter of 2026. However, the project is focused on "improving the efficiency of production and supply chain management rather than changing specifications."
Therefore, this expected version of Apple's Vision Pro "may reduce costs" without reducing specifications, which means "the user experience will be the same as the current model." Therefore, Kuo speculates that Apple will pass on the cost savings to buyers, but this is not guaranteed.
Ming-Chi Kuo predicts that Apple’s Vision Pro won’t be mass-produced until 2027. This timeline fits in with other recent rumors about the future of Apple Vision Pro.
Summary of research reports
U.S. market demand has slowed significantly:
VisionPro’s shipping time has now improved to 3–5 days (arrives in early March).
The shipping time after opening pre-orders on January 19 was early March, which means that although VisionPro was sold out due to active purchase by early adopters after opening pre-orders, demand dropped rapidly and has not improved yet. Confirmation that my previous prediction was correct (for more information, see “VisionPro First Weekend Pre-Order Review: Meets Expectations, but Concerns Emerge”).
Unless VisionPro is reduced in price or has more attractive applications, shipment growth in the US market will be limited.
This year's U.S. market shipments are estimated to be about 200,000-250,000 units. Although this is better than Apple's original estimate of 150,000-200,000 units, this scale is still a niche market.
Global release schedule forecast:
As demand in the U.S. market currently has limited room for growth, an improvement in supply will help advance the global launch schedule. However, the actual launch time depends on Apple's revision of the software to comply with regulations in other countries.
I still maintain my prediction that Apple may release Vision Pro in more countries before WWDC this year.
Supply chain expansion:
In the past month, several suppliers with smaller original production capacity have expanded production from 500,000 to 600,000 units this year to 700,000 to 800,000 units. Even so, this size is still a niche product.
In addition to better-than-expected demand from early adopters in the U.S. market, another main reason why Apple requires suppliers to expand production is to reduce the shipping time after the global launch.
It should be noted that production capacity is often not exactly equivalent to shipments. Taking the iPhone as an example, the annual assembly capacity currently reaches 250-300 million units, but actual shipments are significantly lower.
Return rate:
According to my investigation of the repair/refurbishment production line, the current return rate of VisionPro is less than 1%, and this result is not abnormal.
It is noteworthy that about 20–30% of users who return products do so because they do not know how to set up VisionPro.
New model forecast:
The market generally expects Apple to launch a low-priced version with lower specifications (such as reducing the number of cameras, removing Eyesight, etc.) and new models with upgraded specifications. But my latest investigation shows that Apple has not yet officially launched the above two projects.
Apple's new VisionPro project, currently officially launched, is expected to be mass-produced in 4Q25-1Q26, with Hon Hai obtaining new product development (NPI; new product introduction). This new project focuses on improving supply chain production and management efficiency rather than specification changes. This new project may reduce costs, and the latest plan shows that there are limited changes in specifications, so it is currently speculated that the user experience may not be different from the current model.
Apple is already collecting user feedback to plan the VisionPro product roadmap. It is currently estimated that new models with significant changes in VisionPro specifications may not be mass-produced until 2027.
Investment conclusion:
Since the pre-ordering of VisionPro, everything has been in line with previous expectations. The only thing that has exceeded expectations is that the number of early adopters is larger than expected and the supplier has expanded production. But even so, based on current demand (2024 shipment estimates have been raised to 600,000-700,000 units vs. the previous 500,000 units) and production scale, VisionPro is still a niche product.
For Apple and most suppliers, the investment theme of VisionPro still has very limited impact on stock prices.
The three keys to VisionPro turning from a niche product to a mass product are application, price and head-wearing comfort. The above three key improvements/changes are the focus of future observations.