Everyone must have heard of the El Niño and La Niña phenomena. In recent years, the former has occurred frequently in the Pacific Ocean and has had a considerable impact on our country. Yesterday afternoon, the China Meteorological Administration held a press conference for October 2023. The deputy director of the National Climate Center introduced that, in general,El Niño is still in its development stage.
According to the study and judgment of future development trends, it is expected that sea temperatures in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific will continue to rise in the next three months.A moderate-intensity eastern-type El Niño event will form this autumn, and the El Niño peak may occur during this winter..
Generally, when an El Niño event occurs, southern my country will have rainy autumns, and northern regions are prone to warm winters. However, there are many climate factors that affect our country, and El Niño is only one of them, so the general climate trend in autumn and winter needs to be viewed comprehensively.
It is worth mentioning that the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) recently pointed out in a report thatThere is a 56% chance that a strong El Niño will form this winter, and an 84% chance that it will exceed a moderate intensity., which will have a more dramatic impact on global climate patterns.
After the El Niño phenomenon forms, it will gradually strengthen during the northern hemisphere winter from 2023 to early 2024, which will bring more extreme weather. Floods will occur in dry and rainy areas, while areas that were originally rainy may experience extreme drought.
If a strong El Niño event occurs,2024 will be the hottest year on record.