Analyst firm TrendForce noted that DRAM and NAND flash memory prices may rise by 3-8% in the fourth quarter. The company said price increases will depend on whether manufacturers continue to cut production and the extent to which actual demand recovers - with the server market being a "key determinant".
According to TrendForce, most manufacturers are reluctant to cut prices further and actually want to see "aggressive price increases." PCDDR5 prices have already increased in the third quarter, and increases in the fourth quarter will further increase hardware costs, it said.
In terms of servers, Samsung has stepped up its efforts to reduce production, especially the production of server DDR4. TrendForce reports that this has resulted in tight supply of server DDR4 inventory, meaning prices in this area will inevitably rise.
The report claims that manufacturers hope to profit from the reduced supply by increasing production of DDR5. Consumers can lower prices by shopping around, and manufacturers will lower prices as much as possible to attract customers.
Over the past year or so, consumers have cut back on their purchases of computers and cell phones as prices have remained high. With this additional inventory, demand for components such as memory will not be as great, thus exerting a certain restraint on prices.
Gartner reports that global PC shipments fell again in the third quarter, but will grow in the fourth quarter. If shipments do increase, it will mean fewer computers in inventory, more production, and a shift in DRAM supply. Broken down, TrendForce said that desktop DDR4 prices will increase by 0-5%, and DDR5 prices will increase by 3-8%. On the server side, DDR4 prices will remain stable and DDR5 prices will continue to fall.
The report said: "With rising DDR5 shipments and a clear price gap of 50-60% from DDR4, the hybrid average selling price of this series is expected to rise. Therefore, server DRAM contract prices are expected to increase by 3-8% in the fourth quarter."
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