IBM CEO Arvind Krishna said that although AI has important value, it will not replace programmers in the short term, but will mainly improve programmers' work efficiency. Krishna disagreed with the prediction that 90% of code will be generated by AI in the next three to six months.
He believes that the proportion of code generated by AI is more likely to be 20% to 30%, far lower than 90%. "AI can complete some simple tasks, but in more complex areas, AI may be useless."
Krishna emphasized that AI mainly improves the efficiency of programmers, rather than leading to large-scale layoffs. He asked rhetorically: "If programmers' work efficiency increases by 30%, will the final code output be reduced?" He pointed out that history shows that more productive companies usually occupy a larger market share, thereby developing more products and further expanding their business.
Krishna acknowledged that intellectual property issues regarding AI training and generated content still need to be resolved, but he believed that AI is ultimately a tool that can enhance human capabilities. He compared AI to calculators and Photoshop. These tools have caused similar controversies, but in the end they have become important means of improving work efficiency.
Krishna also said that the cost of AI will continue to fall. Although inference models like OpenAI’s GPT-4 still require a lot of computing power and energy, new technologies will reduce the energy consumption of AI computing to less than 1% of the current level. He also mentioned that IBM is investing heavily in the field of quantum computing and believes that quantum computing, not AI, is the key technology to promote scientific discovery. (Qingyun)