NASA's James Webb Space Telescope recently made its last observations of the asteroid 2024 YR4 before it drifted out of range. The rare data update refines the asteroid's predicted path and shows a slight increase in its likelihood of hitting the moon, but leaving Earth untouched.

Webb telescope captures last glimpse

Asteroid 2024 YR4 may have disappeared from view now, but NASA's James Webb Space Telescope captured one last observation of it before it drifted too far from Earth to be tracked. This last observation, taken as it continues its orbit around the sun, brought with it a wealth of valuable new data.

Thanks to clear observations from the Webb telescope, scientists at NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Research at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) in Southern California were able to improve their predictions of the asteroid's future path. Now, their prediction of the asteroid's location on December 22, 2032 is 20% more accurate. This tweak slightly increases the probability of it hitting the moon - from 3.8% to 4.3%. Even if a collision occurs, it will not affect the moon's orbit.

The range of possible locations for 2024 YR4 (shown as yellow dots) indicates December 22, 2032. The range gradually narrows from April to June as we get more data and improve our certainty about the asteroid's location. The Earth is near the center of the white circle, which represents the Moon's orbit. Image source: NASA/JPL Center for Near-Earth Object Research

Rule out the possibility of impacting the Earth

When 2024 YR4 was first discovered, it once caused concern because the possibility of it hitting the Earth was very small. However, with further observations, NASA has confidently ruled out any risk of an impact in 2032 or later.

It is normal for these probabilities to change as more data becomes available. The update was obtained in May using the Webb Space Telescope's near-infrared camera by an international scientific team led by Dr. Andy Rifkin of the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory.

Won’t appear again before 2028

Asteroid 2024 YR4 is currently too far away from Earth to be observed by both ground and space telescopes. But it won't be hidden forever. NASA plans to conduct new observations of the asteroid when it returns to the inner solar system in 2028, which will provide another opportunity to further optimize its orbit.

Compiled from /ScitechDaily