JPMorgan Chase & Co. lowered its price target on Apple stock and warned that after a wave of early buying and waning interest in upcoming models,iPhoneDemand may be slowing.existIn a note to investors, J.P. Morgan lowered Apple's price target toFrom $240Down to $230. The new price target reflects lower revenue and earnings expectations for the next 18 months.
The company noted that demand forecast for the upcoming iPhone 17 series will weaken. Additionally, broader economic pressures could weigh on consumer spending.
iPhone 17 demand expected to slow
JPMorgan now expects iPhone sales to decline following an earlier boost in demand. Consumers are buying new devices earlier than ever to avoid expected price increases from the Trump administration's tariffs.
The surge in early buying activity, coupled with limited hardware changes for the iPhone 17, is expected to lead to slower adoption of the new models when they become available.
Production forecasts for iPhone 17 models are lower than 2024 levels, with output expected to be about 9% lower than iPhone 16. Despite weaker sales in the second half of the year, Apple's iPhone shipments are expected to be roughly the same in 2025 as in 2024.
JPMorgan's latest forecast also shows slower growth in Apple's services unit, which has been the main driver of margin expansion in recent years.
Tariffs and supply chain shifts
Apple shifted its supply chain from China to India, reducing its exposure to U.S. tariffs and protecting its profit margins. However, this will not be enough to offset the expected volume loss from the price increase.
These structural changes could benefit the company in the long term, but are currently causing forecasts to slow.
The adjusted price target shows that analysts have adjusted their expectations for Apple's hardware growth and market sentiment has shifted accordingly. Although the iPhone remains Apple's core product, incremental updates may lead to a decline in consumer enthusiasm.
Future growth is tied to Apple Intelligence
Looking ahead, JPMorgan Chase believes the iPhone 18 will bring stronger growth momentum. The cycle is expected to include foldable models and more advanced artificial intelligence features.
Both updates are likely to reignite interest and support faster revenue growth in FY27. Meanwhile, the company's 2025 earnings forecast remains largely unchanged.
Recent iPhone revenue forecasts have been slightly raised, while service business and gross profit margin forecasts have been lowered. Forecasts for fiscal 2026 and fiscal 2027 reflect slower volume growth, potential resilience from future price increases and tariff-related cost pressures.
Despite low accuracy rates and low user acceptance, investors are paying unusual attention to artificial intelligence innovations. Compared with its competitors, Apple has been more cautious in promoting artificial intelligence and expanding its functions.
An upgraded version of Siri may not be available until 2026
Apple's long-term strategy seems increasingly focused on 2026 as a turning point for platform-level innovation. A comprehensive overhaul of Siri based on the device's built-in language model is not expected to be launched until early 2026, most likely iOS 26.4.
The upgrade will bring deeper situational awareness and more advanced interactions, marking a major shift in Apple's approach to artificial intelligence.
There are rumors that a foldable iPhone will also be launched during this time. Some reports say the phone could go into production in the second half of 2025 and could be available by the end of 2026. Other reports say the phone's launch will be delayed until 2027.
Until then, Apple has relied on its services revenue and margin controls to maintain investor confidence. While its fundamentals remain strong, JPMorgan's revision suggests short-term growth may be limited unless Apple launches more compelling hardware updates.