European forests, especially those in Italian mountains, are facing drastic changes brought about by the climate crisis. New research shows that suitable habitat for many tree species may be reduced and that for some species it will be expanded. The study highlights the need to diversify tree species and alerts people to potential new risks. Further research is planned to extend these findings to Italy and Europe.
Forests in Italian mountains are becoming increasingly vulnerable due to changing conditions brought about by the climate crisis.
The composition of forests is likely to change dramatically in the future due to the ongoing climate crisis. Trees currently common in European forests may disappear or move to higher altitudes. In a study published in Frontiers in Forests and Global Change, researchers focused on five vulnerable mountainous areas in Italy. They conducted detailed analyzes and predictions to understand how these fragile ecosystems might evolve in the face of environmental change.
Dr Sergio Noos from the Euro-Mediterranean Foundation Center for Climate Change (CMCC) said: "We can see the initial stages of profound changes in species, and like any natural process it takes time, and in forests the time is completely different from ours.
Forests provide valuable resources to communities. Wood products and wild foods such as truffles can boost local economies, while forests can influence water supply and quality, create and protect soil, maintain biodiversity, and provide recreational opportunities.
About one-third of Italy's area is forest, and the forest area is still increasing. However, in recent years, droughts, storms and fires have destroyed forests, causing rapid environmental changes. Mountain forests are particularly vulnerable to the impacts of the climate crisis.
To understand and respond to what is happening, we need high-resolution climate data and reliable models to predict the future and try to understand the impact of the climate crisis on these endangered forests.
North and his team developed models of forest species distribution in five regions of the Apennines and Alps. They combined these models with climate change projections based on two scenarios: one in which emissions slow down and one in which there is no change. Using this data, they created a map of future land suitability for trees up to 2050.
"Understanding which species will be favored or disadvantaged under future conditions helps us make planning, management and conservation choices," North said. "Forests provide very important ecosystem services to humans - regulation of the water cycle, biodiversity, wood and non-timber products, tourism, carbon dioxide capture and storage, etc. Every choice made today will affect these services for years to come, so it is important to understand as much as possible about these choices."
North and his team found that the suitable ranges of most species have become smaller, while some may extend beyond their current tree line to gain larger ranges - notably European larch and turkey oak. This is true in both scenarios, but the extent of the change differs: scientists suggest thinking of these scenarios as upper and lower bounds on possible outcomes.
In general, tree lines are likely to shift upward, and smaller, more specialized species are more likely to disappear. Additionally, alpine ecosystems such as alpine meadows are likely to become more scarce as trees encroach on current grasslands.
The team said it was difficult to identify clear winners or losers among the tree species studied. However, they found that silver fir and European beech were particularly vulnerable. Of the five regions studied, the northern and northeastern Apennines are most at risk, with all existing tree species vulnerable to the changes. Mixed forests composed of different tree species are more adaptable.
Some surviving tree species may also pose other vulnerabilities. Maritime pine is a candidate for the forests of the southern Apennines, where it is more likely to burn than trees currently common there. This could cause serious problems as fire risks are expected to rise.
However, the authors caution that the relationship between environmental variables and species presence may not be the same as in the past, and changes may still surprise us. Still, these high-quality models can help identify species and forests that can survive the climate crisis.
"We can think of this work as an experiment to be expanded," North said. "We already plan to deepen our research in Italy using European funds from the EU's Next Generation programme, but we also plan to do this by broadening the geographical scope and time span."
Compiled source: ScitechDaily