Recently, news about adjustments to Apple's iPhone Air model production plan has been widely circulated, but according to the latest supply chain report, Apple may not reduce the production quantity of this model in 2025. After the release of the iPhone 17 series and iPhone Air, there were rumors in the industry that the market response to this new thin and light model was poor and Apple planned to reduce production quantities.
In response, the American TD Cowen Investment Company came forward to deny the above statement on October 26. An investor report obtained by AppleInsider indicates that Apple’s 2025 iPhone Air production plans have not changed.
The TD Cowen report shows that the production forecast for Apple’s various iPhone models in October 2025, including iPhone Air, remains unchanged. Supply chain surveys show no difference in production levels this month. TD Cowen's "field research" maintains its forecast for iPhone Air production of 3 million units in the third quarter and 7 million units in the fourth quarter.
Taking the entire iPhone 17 series into account, the September quarter production is expected to be 54 million units, and the December quarter output is expected to be 79 million units, both of which have not been adjusted.
TD Cowen’s views on iPhone Air production run counter to the predictions of some industry analysts. On October 17, Japan's Mizuho Securities stated that Apple would reduce iPhone Air orders by 1 million units, while increasing orders for other models totaling 7 million units. On October 22, well-known analyst Ming-Chi Kuo joined this view, saying that the supply chain has begun to reduce iPhone Air production capacity. On the same day, multiple Nikkei media also reported on supply chain adjustments, quoting a supplier manager who said that iPhone Air "almost entered production suspension mode" due to weak demand. The report pointed out that iPhone Air production in November will be reduced to one-tenth of September (that is, not a 10% reduction, but only one-tenth).
Although there are currently divergent production forecasts for the iPhone Air, supply chain adjustments do not necessarily reflect the future sales performance of the model. Apple adopts a "just-in-time production" model with a flexible supply chain structure that can quickly adjust production within a few weeks to respond to changes in market demand.
Additionally, consumer buying habits change over time. When a new phone is launched, the Pro series usually sells best, while non-Pro models often see sales growth a few months later. The iPhone Air, which is positioned as a mid-range product, may not be fully applicable to the existing production and market rules of Pro and non-Pro. Apple will still flexibly adjust production based on market feedback to meet consumer demand.