Not long ago, the new Redmi K90 series products caused heated discussions on the Internet due to pricing issues. Lu Weibing, president of Xiaomi Group's mobile phone department, responded urgently that the reason affecting product pricing is that "storage costs have risen much higher than expected and will continue to intensify." Later, Lei Jun also publicly stated that "the memory price increase is too much."
Because of the price changes caused by the increase in mobile phone memory prices, Lu Weibing and Lei Jun actually spoke out publicly. Behind this seemingly simple hot event is actually a "super cycle" ushering in the memory supply chain industry.
"Electronic Moutai" is here
As early as September 2022, some netizens called for "hoarding memory modules quickly" in Zhongguancun. At that time, the flash sale price of Jinbaida's 16GB DDR4 memory was only 199 yuan. It's a pity that the shouting in the air did not cause much splash at that time, because in everyone's eyes, it was just a regular promotion of digital accessories.
Even in 2024, there is still a chance to catch the "last train" - a Lexar DDR4 16GB desktop memory stick sells for only 179 yuan on the e-commerce platform, but with a 99% praise rate, no one realized that this would be a low-priced "swan song."
It was not until the e-commerce promotion season started at the end of October this year, when a large number of consumers wanted to purchase memory together, that the market situation completely reversed.
According to a report by the Financial Investment News on November 6, in a digital supermarket in Chengdu, several computer assembly merchants said that since the beginning of this year, the prices of memory sticks and other products have fluctuated greatly. A 16GB DDR4 memory stick that could previously be purchased for more than 200 yuan now costs more than 400 yuan.On the e-commerce platform, the same Lexar DDR4 16GB memory stick that sold for only 179 yuan last year has been sold at its official flagship store for 699 yuan, an increase of more than three times in more than a year.
Not only the "popular" DDR4, but also some thousand-yuan DDR5 memory sticks have risen from more than 1,000 yuan to nearly 2,000 yuan since this year. For example, on an e-commerce website, the Zhiqi Royal Halberd 32GB DDR5-6000 has been sold for 2,500 yuan, the Acer Ice Blade 48GB DDR5-6000 has risen to 2,000 yuan, and the Asgard Valkyrie 32GB DDR5-6000 also costs 1,700 yuan. Compared with two months ago, the increase has reached 100%, or even more.
Data from TrendForce is more intuitive: In the third quarter of 2025, the price of DRAM (dynamic random access memory) soared 171.8% compared with the same period last year, while the increase in international spot gold during the same period was less than 110% - the money-making effect of memory sticks actually crushed the traditional safe-haven asset gold - the title of "Electronic Moutai" was completely out of the circle.
Wholesalers in Huaqiangbei, Shenzhen, had a premonition about this. In August, they discovered that memory prices "changed every day", and even mobile phone flash memory increased accordingly. Digital merchants in Hangzhou and Changsha confirmed that the price of mainstream DDR4 memory modules doubled in August, with some models increasing by 200%. Industry insiders bluntly said: "The supply shortage situation cannot be reversed in the short term."
In fact, not only the price of memory is rising, but the price of solid-state drives is not far behind."Financial Investment News" also mentioned in a report on November 6 that the average channel price of mainstream 1TB capacity PCIe4.0 SSD has increased by more than 60% compared with the beginning of the year, and the increase of some popular models has even reached more than 80%. Some consumers who were preparing to buy a Kingston 1TB solid-state drive recently discovered that this solid-state drive could be purchased for only 369 yuan on February 5 this year, but on November 5, its price had risen to 579 yuan, an increase of about 57%.
Who is hyping "Electronic Moutai"?
In October, Chen Libai, chairman of ADATA, a leading domestic memory brand, said that the current situation of comprehensive shortages and price increases in the four major storage categories of DRAM, NAND flash memory, SSD solid state drives and HDD mechanical hard drives was the first time in his more than 30 years in the industry.
Behind this "super cycle" is not simple market fluctuations, but the sparks caused by the explosion of the AI industry and the restructuring of global production capacity. This, combined with multiple factors, makes the impact of price increases far deeper and longer than before.
First of all, the rise of the AI industry is the largest source of increase in demand, and the demand for servers on the industrial side is placed at the highest level.
As demand in the AI industry explodes, AI model training and big data processing require massive high-bandwidth, low-latency memory support. Data shows that a single AI server requires eight times more DRAM than an ordinary server. Projects like OpenAI's "Stargate" require a monthly supply of up to 900,000 DRAM wafers. This number alone is close to 40% of global DRAM production. This has greatly boosted server memory demand.
TrendForce's report states that in the second half of 2025, the DDR4 market will continue to be in short supply and prices will rise strongly. As rigid orders for servers squeeze the supply of PC and consumer markets, PC OEM manufacturers have to accelerate the introduction of DDR5 solutions. Consumer manufacturers are faced with the challenges of high prices and difficulty in obtaining materials. The tight supply and demand in the DDR market has also pushed up mobile DRAM contract prices.
Secondly, the structural contraction of the supply side has amplified the imbalance between supply and demand, and the tilt of the global storage giant's production capacity strategy has become a key variable.
Public reports show that South Korea's Samsung and SK Hynix, which control about 70% of the global DRAM chip market, have accelerated their transfer to high-end chips such as HBM and DDR5, directly squeezing the production capacity of DDR4, resulting in reduced DDR4 production and a shortage in market demand.
Chen Libai also specifically mentioned that the three major international storage manufacturers have determined to stop the production of DDR4 and have dismantled related old equipment, which means that it is almost impossible for them to resume the production of DDR4, so the market supply gap will continue to expand.
Regarding the continued price impact of supply-side production cuts on the market, TrendForce’s survey in September showed that,The three major DRAM (mainstream memory chip types) manufacturers, Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix and Micron, are continuing to prioritize production capacity to high-end server DRAM and HBM (high-bandwidth memory), which directly leads to the squeeze of memory chip production capacity required for consumer electronics equipment such as mobile phones and PCs. Superimposed on the differentiation of end product demand, the agency judged at that time that the price increase of old-process DRAM would still be considerable in the fourth quarter of 2025, and the increase in new-generation products would be relatively mild.
At the same time, analyst Xu Jiayuan also pointed out that original factory production capacity is being allocated to high-end server DRAM and HBM first, thus squeezing the supply of old process products such as DDR4 and LPDDR4X required for traditional consumer electronics. The shortage of DDR4 may continue until the first half of 2026.
Third, the recovery of consumer electronics and the growth of demand in the emerging smart field have further intensified the contradiction between supply and demand.
After experiencing a trough in 2023, the consumer electronics market finally picked up at the end of 2024, and mobile phone manufacturers launched a promotional banner of "standard storage capacity upgrade", which directly pushed up the user's demand threshold for memory chips.
At the same time, the explosive growth in the field of smart cars and autonomous vehicles has also put greater pressure on the demand for mobile DRAM. Driven by smart cockpits, ADAS and autonomous driving technologies, vehicle storage capacity is breaking through from 512GB to 1TB.
Fourth, market speculation amplifies price fluctuations.
As netizens said, if I had known the news and stocked up on 16GB DDR4 memory in advance, it would now be equivalent to holding "electronic Moutai" and complete wealth freedom.
Earlier, industry insiders revealed that at the beginning of 2025, many dealers predicted that the price of storage particles would increase through industry channels, and began to purchase goods on a large scale and lock in prices. By the second quarter of 2025, the spot circulation of DRAM in the Huaqiangbei market has been significantly reduced, and some merchants have even "locked up" DDR4 and DDR5 memory modules, waiting for subsequent price increases before selling.
On the e-commerce platform, some merchants have used "memory financial management" as a gimmick for marketing, artificially creating a tense atmosphere and promoting irrational price increases. Although the e-commerce platforms quickly cleared up the speculative merchants’ behavior after triggering consumer resistance, the trend of rapid upward price fluctuations in the memory market is irreversible.
03
Opportunity to get rich or trap for speculation?
Will "Electronic Moutai" continue to rise? The answer is yes.
From a market perspective, the shift from DDR4 to DDR5 and HBM is irreversible, just like the shift from feature phones to smartphones in the mobile phone market. From a capital perspective, the continued rise of the memory market will bring more profit opportunities, and speculators will not let the market cool down easily.
However, not everyone has the ability to become a "speculator", and similar plots have already happened to speculators who speculate in gold.
In April 2013, the international gold price suddenly experienced a "shocking plunge", falling from US$1,550 per ounce to around US$1,320, with the largest single-day drop reaching US$135, and a drop of more than 10% in just a few days. After this "coaching opportunity" became known to the "Chinese aunts", in just 10 days, the aunts spent hundreds of billions to sweep away 300 tons of gold. Even foreign media exclaimed that "Chinese aunts single-handedly fought against Wall Street."
However, after the "Chinese aunts" collectively bargained for the bottom, gold prices did not rebound as expected, but continued to fall, reaching as low as $1,049 per ounce. The aunts who bought the bottom were not only "drifted", but were also locked up for a long time from 2013 to 2019.
At present, speculation in the memory market is more dangerous than gold speculation. After all, from a time perspective, the gold market in recent years is enough for the aunts who entered the market in 2013 to completely unwind and even achieve substantial profits. The upgrade of memory products is born out of the overall iteration of the technology industry, and the price transmission chain in the storage industry is long, and it often takes time to spread from the industry end to the consumer market. By the time ordinary consumers know that "memory prices are going to rise," the so-called "speculative opportunities" have long passed, and all that's left are the pitfalls of "takers."
For ordinary people, the answer to the question "How to deal with 'Electronic Moutai'?" is actually very simple: if you just need to assemble computers and upgrade equipment, there is no need to worry too much about short-term price fluctuations. Buy early, use it early, and have peace of mind early; but if you want to follow the trend and stock up for speculation, there is a high probability that the gain will outweigh the loss.
After all, memory is a core accessory serving technology products, not an "electronic Moutai" used for hype. Understanding the logic behind industry fluctuations and seeing clearly the trends in technological change driven by AI are far more meaningful than calculating the price difference of a few hundred yuan in front of you.
Raising the horizon to the industry level, this price increase also hides opportunities for domestic storage to break through.Counterpoint predicts that Changxin Technology's DRAM shipments are expected to increase by 50% year-on-year in 2025, and its global market share will increase from 6% in the first quarter to 8% in the fourth quarter; Yangtze Memory plans to increase its monthly production capacity to 150,000 pieces by the end of 2025, and its total production capacity will reach 300,000 pieces/month in 2028, aiming to occupy 15% of the global NAND market share.
The process of domestic substitution is accelerating. When domestic production capacity continues to be released, and when AI demand enters a stable period, the bubble of hoarding and speculation will eventually burst. By then, both merchants with a speculative mentality and individuals who follow the trend may become "memory leeks" to take over the market and face huge losses.
This "super cycle" in the storage industry will eventually return to rationality. The ones who really have the last laugh are not the hoarding speculators, but the companies that master core technologies and steadily expand production, as well as ordinary people who see the trends clearly and consume rationally.