On May 15, Ming-Chi Kuo, a well-known Apple analyst from Tianfeng International Securities, published an article analyzing the cooperation between Apple and Intel in chip production and the impact of this cooperation on TSMC. Ming-Chi Kuo pointed out that Apple is aware that TSMC’s resources will continue to be tilted towards the AI field in the future. Long before TSMC’s advanced process production capacity becomes tight, it has already begun to negotiate cooperation with Intel and systematically cultivate Intel to equip it with the ability to become a long-term key supplier.
According to Ming-Chi Kuo's latest industry survey, Apple has launched low-end/older iPhone, iPad and Mac processor projects on Intel's 18A-P series process (using Foveros packaging). Judging from the order structure, iPhone chips account for about 80%, which is similar to the sales proportion of terminal equipment.
Apple's wafer production plan on Intel's process technology also reflects the technology life cycle of the 18A-P series: small-scale testing in 2026, large-scale production in 2027, continued growth in 2028, and entering a recession period in 2029.
In addition, Apple is also simultaneously evaluating Intel's other advanced process technologies. However, Intel's mass production schedule and shipment scale are still unclear, and the assembly end/EMS (electronics manufacturing service provider) has not yet seen a clear shipment plan. Intel's production yield target for 2027 is to first stably reach above 50% to 60%.
Ming-Chi Kuo revealed that Intel will face unprecedented critical opportunities and arduous challenges, and internal attitudes towards the Apple order are mixed. In the next few years, the vast majority of advanced process orders will still be concentrated in TSMC, so Apple is almost Intel’s only and most complete foundry training opportunity.
However, Apple's high standards and its strategy of taking orders from other customers at the same time will further amplify the difficulty of Intel's execution in rebuilding its advanced process wafer foundry business. Its own efforts, geopolitics, and customers' demand for risk diversification have jointly given Intel a once-in-a-lifetime golden window for reinvention. But whether it can be fulfilled in the end depends entirely on execution.
Ming-Chi Kuo said that TSMC can still sit back and relax in the next few years. Even if Intel can successfully ship initially, TSMC will still account for more than 90% of the supply. However, TSMC's leading position is becoming the focus of risk hedging for all parties.
When TSMC’s advanced processes become scarce resources and resources continue to be tilted towards AI, Apple will naturally seek to cooperate with Intel to enhance its bargaining power. But Apple is not an exception. All key players in the advanced process field are hedging risks against TSMC: the U.S. government promotes layout through a series of semiconductor policies, Apple uses the cultivation of Intel, and Samsung uses the amazing profits brought by the storage business to support advanced process investment. In contrast, TSMC is still mainly responding with excellent execution, which is equivalent to betting its competitive advantage on the assumption that "execution will continue to lead."