The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) released its latest report on the 3rd, raising the forecast level for the acceleration of the strong El Niño phenomenon in the next few months, and warned that this phenomenon is likely to further push up global temperatures and significantly increase the risk of extreme weather and climate events in many places.
World Meteorological Organization scientist Alvaro Silva pointed out that El Niño conditions are currently occurring in the equatorial Pacific, and major mainstream forecast models are highly consistent in indicating that this is about to develop into a strong El Niño event. Silva emphasized that the intensity of El Niño is crucial, as its additional boosting effect on global temperatures often results in global average temperatures setting new historical records. According to the current multi-year meteorological evolution trend, the potential impact of this round of El Niño on different regions of the world will last at least until the end of this year and affect 2027.
The World Meteorological Organization had previously predicted that a moderate or strong El Niño might occur in early June, but the latest observational data has significantly increased the confidence in the prediction of a "strong El Niño". The agency also stated that if monitoring information later this summer shows that the severity has intensified, it does not rule out the possibility of further raising the forecast level in the future.
Quarterly climate forecasts show that this round of strong El Niño will present typical and strong climate disturbance characteristics. Affected by this, Central America, the Caribbean and parts of North and South America will be drier than normal; during the monsoon season, parts of South Asia, Indonesia and parts of Southeast Asia will also face the threat of drought and lack of rain.
Meteorological experts mentioned that as an extreme manifestation of climate change, Europe has just experienced the most severe abnormal heat wave on record from June 20 to 28, causing local power supply interruptions, infrastructure damage, and huge overload pressure on the medical and health systems. The World Meteorological Organization reiterates that El Niño is a periodic phenomenon in which sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific warm regularly, usually lasting 9 to 12 months. Under the current background of global warming, its superposition with climate changes caused by human activities will make the global extreme weather disaster prevention and reduction situation more severe.