The automobile aftermarket report released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers and the Joint Consulting Agency shows that the average age of domestic fuel-powered passenger cars is 8.2 years, and 70% of car owners replace their cars more than five years ago. The average age of new energy passenger vehicles is only 1.8 years, with 90% of vehicles concentrated in the range of 1 to 3 years, and the pace of vehicle owner replacement is significantly faster.This huge difference is the result of the combined effect of market development stage, product attributes and consumption concepts.
First of all, the incremental market structure directly reduces the average age of new energy vehicles.
Domestic new energy vehicles will see an explosion in sales starting in 2021, and the penetration rate has increased significantly in just five years. The retail sales of new energy vehicles in 2025 will exceed 12.8 million units, and the new vehicles that year accounted for nearly 30% of the existing fleet.
A large number of new cars on the road have been in use for less than a year, and the number of existing trams in the early years was low, which directly lowered the overall average age of the cars.
On the other hand, fuel vehicles have already entered the stock market, and old vehicles accumulated over the years continue to circulate. Fuel vehicles that are more than 7 years old account for nearly 60%, so the age of the vehicles is naturally high.
Second-hand car transaction data also confirms this feature. The average age of second-hand fuel vehicles is 8.6 years, and that of new energy second-hand vehicles is only 3.4 years.
Secondly, the "electronic productization" attribute of new energy vehicles shortens the ownership willingness of car owners.
The core of fuel vehicles relies on mechanical components such as engines and gearboxes. The technology iteration cycle is as long as five to eight years. There will be no obvious generational differences in the long-term use of older models.
New energy vehicles are centered on batteries, chips, and intelligent systems, and the industry iteration speed has been compressed to 18 to 24 months. Car companies launch dozens of new vehicles every year, and facelifts and upgrades have become the norm.
For many car owners, just a few years after purchasing their cars, the computing power of the vehicle chips cannot adapt to the latest car systems, and the smart driving configuration lags far behind new models. The experience gap prompts car owners to replace their cars in advance.
At the same time, the precipitous drop in value retention rates has accelerated the decision to replace cars.
The technology of new energy vehicles is updated at a rapid pace, and old models have large second-hand discounts. Car owners are generally unwilling to hold vehicles that continue to depreciate for a long time.
Industry surveys show that 90% of new energy vehicle owners complete replacements within five years, and the mainstream vehicle replacement cycle is concentrated in 3 to 5 years, which is much shorter than the 6 to 8 year replacement rhythm of fuel vehicles.
The early generation of electric vehicles also had problems with battery decay and high maintenance costs. Many vehicles entered the online ride-hailing market or were directly eliminated, further reducing long-term self-use stocks.
In the long run, as early new energy vehicles gradually enter the replacement cycle, the market will gradually transition to stock competition.
It is difficult for car companies to attract consumers by relying solely on rapid iterations. Only by deeply cultivating user operations and improving the long-term value of products can they alleviate the current situation in the industry where car owners frequently change cars.
