TrendForce said that DRAM contract prices will increase by approximately 13% to 18% in the first quarter of 2024, with MobileDRAM continuing to lead the increase. It is currently observed that since the demand outlook for 2024 is still unclear, the original manufacturers believe that continuous production reduction is still necessary to maintain the supply and demand balance of the memory industry.

PCDRAM方面，由于DDR5订单需求尚未被满足，同时买方预期DDR4价格会持续上涨，带动买方拉货动能延续，然受到机种逐渐升级至DDR5影响，对DDR4的位元采购量不一定会扩大。不过，由于DDR4及DDR5的售价均尚未达到原厂目标，加上买方仍可接受第一季续涨，故预估整体PCDRAM合约价季涨幅约10~15%，其中DDR5涨幅会略高于DDR4。

In terms of ServerDRAM, due to the buyer's focus on accelerating the elimination of DDR4 last year, the proportion of DDR5 inventory has increased to about 40% in the fourth quarter of 2023. Compared with the market penetration rate of 20~25%, it is obvious that the market demand has not yet been fully realized.然而，原厂持续收敛DDR4供给量，同时为提高获利能力而大幅提高DDR5产出，使2024年第一季ServerDRAM合约价季涨幅扩大至10~15%。 However, some original manufacturers negotiated prices earlier, which resulted in a higher contract price benchmark in the fourth quarter of last year. Therefore, the prices of some manufacturers in the first quarter of 2024 increased by approximately 8% to 13%.

MobileDRAM方面，由于合约价格仍在历史相对低点，买方更倾向持续建立安全且相对低价的库存水位，因此不断放大购货需求，故第一季MobileDRAM需求不减。 As buyers actively purchase, supply and demand have become tight. However, due to the uncertainty in the future of the smartphone market, original manufacturers dare not rush to resume full production. On the other hand, the semiconductor manufacturing process takes a long time, and the tight supply and demand situation is difficult to alleviate in the short term, which will help to increase the price of original manufacturers.因此，预估第一季MobileDRAM合约价季涨幅约18~23%，且不排除在寡占市场格局或是品牌客户恐慌追价的情况下，季涨幅有扩大可能。

GraphicsDRAM方面，由于在涨势延续的氛围下，买方也持续备货，故主流规格GDDR616Gb需求仍强，采购心态普遍愿意接受上涨，预估第一季GraphicsDRAM合约价季涨幅约10~15%。TrendForce集邦咨询观察，短期内GraphicsDRAM没有跌价迹象，目前拉货动能主要受到买方提前备货所带动，加上GraphicsDRAM属于浅盘市场产品，故需特别留意后续终端消费性电子产品的销售动能是否能跟上。

In terms of Consumer DRAM, the original manufacturers have strongly raised the contract price, prompting buyers to prepare goods in advance, and the momentum of purchasing goods has improved. However, the first quarter coincides with the off-season of the industry. It is expected that in the case of weak terminal sales, buyers' strategy of stocking up in advance will lead to an increase in inventory.原厂普遍认为，2024年受HBM及DDR5的渗透逐季扩大影响，低毛利的DDR4产能将被排挤而形成缺货，故DDR4第一季合约价季涨幅会较DDR3高，约10~15%。 There are still manufacturers of DDR3 that continue to supply, and the general inventory level is still high. The contract price in the first quarter increased by about 8~13% quarter-on-quarter.