TrendForce said that DRAM contract prices will increase by approximately 13% to 18% in the first quarter of 2024, with MobileDRAM continuing to lead the increase. It is currently observed that since the demand outlook for 2024 is still unclear, the original manufacturers believe that continuous production reduction is still necessary to maintain the supply and demand balance of the memory industry.

In terms of PCDRAM, since the demand for DDR5 orders has not yet been met, and buyers expect that DDR4 prices will continue to rise, buyers will continue to purchase goods. However, due to the gradual upgrade of machine models to DDR5, the purchase volume of DDR4 bits may not necessarily expand. However, since the selling prices of DDR4 and DDR5 have not yet reached the original target, and buyers can still accept further increases in the first quarter, the overall PCDRAM contract price is expected to increase by about 10~15% quarterly, with DDR5 increasing slightly higher than DDR4.

In terms of ServerDRAM, due to the buyer's focus on accelerating the elimination of DDR4 last year, the proportion of DDR5 inventory has increased to about 40% in the fourth quarter of 2023. Compared with the market penetration rate of 20~25%, it is obvious that the market demand has not yet been fully realized. However, original manufacturers continue to reduce the supply of DDR4, and at the same time significantly increase DDR5 output in order to improve profitability, which will expand the quarterly increase in ServerDRAM contract prices to 10~15% in the first quarter of 2024. However, some original manufacturers negotiated prices earlier, which resulted in a higher contract price benchmark in the fourth quarter of last year. Therefore, the prices of some manufacturers in the first quarter of 2024 increased by approximately 8% to 13%.

In terms of Mobile DRAM, as the contract price is still at a relatively low level in history, buyers are more inclined to continue to build safe and relatively low-priced inventory levels, so the demand for purchases continues to increase. Therefore, the demand for Mobile DRAM did not decrease in the first quarter. As buyers actively purchase, supply and demand have become tight. However, due to the uncertainty in the future of the smartphone market, original manufacturers dare not rush to resume full production. On the other hand, the semiconductor manufacturing process takes a long time, and the tight supply and demand situation is difficult to alleviate in the short term, which will help to increase the price of original manufacturers. Therefore, it is estimated that the contract price of Mobile DRAM in the first quarter will increase by approximately 18-23% quarter-on-quarter, and it is not ruled out that the quarter-on-quarter increase may expand due to the oligopolistic market structure or the panic pursuit of prices by brand customers.

In terms of GraphicsDRAM, as buyers continue to stock up in an atmosphere where the upward trend continues, demand for the mainstream specification GDDR616Gb is still strong, and purchasing mentality is generally willing to accept the increase. It is estimated that the contract price of GraphicsDRAM in the first quarter will increase by about 10~15% quarter-on-quarter. TrendForce observes that there is no sign of a price drop for Graphics DRAM in the short term. The current momentum of sales is mainly driven by buyers’ advance stocking. In addition, Graphics DRAM is a shallow market product, so special attention needs to be paid to whether the sales momentum of subsequent terminal consumer electronics products can keep up.

In terms of Consumer DRAM, the original manufacturers have strongly raised the contract price, prompting buyers to prepare goods in advance, and the momentum of purchasing goods has improved. However, the first quarter coincides with the off-season of the industry. It is expected that in the case of weak terminal sales, buyers' strategy of stocking up in advance will lead to an increase in inventory. Original manufacturers generally believe that in 2024, due to the quarter-to-quarter expansion of HBM and DDR5 penetration, low-margin DDR4 production capacity will be squeezed out and cause shortages. Therefore, the quarterly increase in DDR4 contract prices in the first quarter will be higher than that of DDR3, about 10~15%. There are still manufacturers of DDR3 that continue to supply, and the general inventory level is still high. The contract price in the first quarter increased by about 8~13% quarter-on-quarter.