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[Surge in inflation fuels expectations of an interest rate hike in October; Wash's Bangkok speech may become a key indicator] October 15th: U.S. inflation unexpectedly picked up in September, rekindling market expectations that the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates this month. In the past few weeks, a rate hike this month seemed unlikely as U.S. central bank officials signaled they had time to wait. Federal Reserve Chairman Josh Warsh has vowed not to guide markets with his views on the outlook for near-term monetary policy. But the unexpected rise in inflation data this time made the outside world pay more attention to his speech in Bangkok on Thursday night, New York time. At that time, he will have a fireside chat with International Monetary Fund (IMF) President Georgieva. Due to the upcoming interest rate meeting, the Federal Reserve will enter the so-called quiet period this Saturday. This means that if the central bank wants to send a signal about the interest rate decision that may be made at this meeting, it may only be delivered by Chairman Warsh. Meghan Swiber, U.S. rates strategist at Bank of America, said investors are "waiting for Warsh to give the green light for the Fed to continue raising interest rates on Thursday." When it comes to the inflation data, Swiber said: "This price increase is quite widespread and it will be difficult for the Fed to ignore it."
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