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B
[Bond giant warns: 10-year U.S. Treasury yields may rise above 6%] On October 9, Ivascyn, chief investment officer of bond giant Pimco, warned that as high oil prices intensify inflation concerns and concerns about the United States’ growing public debt, the benchmark 10-year U.S. bond yields may rise to 6%, which would be the first time since 2000. Ivascyn said a sharp rise in the 10-year Treasury yield from the current level of 5.29% is "possible" in the short term, noting that one reason is that hedge funds are unwinding loss-making Treasury holdings. He said that if U.S. bond yields rise further, it could put pressure on riskier assets such as stocks and corporate bonds.
#U.S. debt dynamics#hedge funds#U.S. stock trends10-09 16:48
B
On October 7, a survey showed that bond strategists expect the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield to fall to 5.00% within three months, 4.90% within six months, and 4.75% within one year.
#U.S. debt dynamics10-07 20:04
B
[Bank of America Strategist: The bond bear market is mainly driven by term premiums] On October 7, Bank of America stated in a report that since mid-September, rising term premiums have driven higher mid- and long-term bond yields in developed markets. The term premium is the additional yield required by investors to hold long-term bonds. The main thing driving yields higher previously was expectations of interest rate hikes. The rise in medium- and long-term bond yields since around mid-September has been driven primarily by term premiums.
#U.S. debt dynamics#Brokerage strategy10-07 20:00
B
[Bank of America: The attractiveness of U.S. debt has increased and it is truly competing with U.S. stocks for the first time in decades] On October 7, Bank of America’s Subramanian said that for the first time in decades, the stock market is facing real competition from bonds. She also warned that high investor sentiment puts the stock market at greater risk of disappointment than room for further gains. She said that the current risk-to-reward ratio for 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds exceeds 5%, and her team's own valuation framework shows that the return of the S&P 500 Index over the next 10 years may not reach this level.
#U.S. stock trends#U.S. debt dynamics#Brokerage strategy10-07 17:57
A
On October 7, the U.S. 30-year Treasury bond yield rose to 5.7041%, up more than 6 basis points during the day, the highest level since 2002.
#U.S. debt dynamics10-07 17:37
B
[T. Rowe says there is good reason for the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield to rise to 6%] On October 1, David Clewell, co-portfolio manager of T. Rowe Price’s multi-asset global income strategy, said that the 5% level of the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield has always been an important psychological threshold for investors. Given the resilience of U.S. economic growth, a rise in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield between 5.5% and 6% is a scenario that has good reasons to support it.
#U.S. debt dynamics10-01 09:40
B
September 30th: After the release of PCE data for August in the United States, the two-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield curves steepened, with the latest value being positive 37.2.
#U.S. debt dynamics09-30 20:39
A
On September 29, the U.S. 30-year Treasury bond yield rose to 5.59%, a new high since 2004.
#U.S. debt dynamics09-29 21:50
B
[U.S. bond yields soared to a 20-year high, and bond market veterans turned bullish for the first time in six years] On September 29, after U.S. bond benchmark yields soared to their highest point in 20 years, Jim Bianco, a Wall Street veteran who has been paying attention to the market for a long time, believed that an attractive entry point has emerged and turned bullish on U.S. Treasury bonds for the first time in six years. Although this wave of bond selling may not be over yet, Bianco said that U.S. Treasury yields of most maturities have risen above 5%, making the risk-reward ratio of holding bonds increasingly attractive. "Everyone is extremely bearish on the bond market right now," Bianco said. "Buying bonds at 5.2% yields already has a big cushion. Now is not the time to panic about it."
#U.S. debt dynamics09-29 14:43
B
[Trump’s rejection of Iran’s proposal caused oil prices to rise, and the bond market sell-off returned] September 28 (Xinhua) U.S. President Trump’s rejection of Iran’s latest proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz caused oil prices to rise, exacerbating market concerns about inflation, and the U.S. Treasury bond sell-off returned with a vengeance on Monday. Short-term U.S. Treasuries, which are sensitive to interest rates, and their global peers fell sharply. The two-year U.S. Treasury yield rose 5 basis points to 4.91%, while the German and British yields of the same maturity rose 5 basis points to 3.33% and 4.89% respectively. Global bond markets are experiencing a sell-off as rising energy prices threaten to push up inflation. In the United States, a surge in business activity, concerns about government debt levels and the prospect of higher interest rates have further exacerbated the trend. Last week, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield briefly rose to its highest level since 2007.
#Qualcomm#middle east conflict#Crude oil market dynamics#U.S. debt dynamics#U.S. economy09-28 17:03
B
[The U.S. Treasury yield curve almost issued a warning that the market narrative may begin to shift toward the risk of economic stagnation] On September 28, the U.S. bond market almost sent out a signal: a series of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve will begin to shift the market narrative toward concerns about the risk of U.S. economic stagnation. Last week, the extra yield investors required to hold the 10-year Treasury note over the 2-year Treasury note narrowed to just 17 basis points, the smallest spread since early 2025. This flattening of the yield curve increases the likelihood that 10-year Treasury yields will soon fall below short-term Treasury yields, a closely watched phenomenon known as an inverted yield curve. Historically, an inverted yield curve has been a powerful signal: The past eight recessions since the 1960s have all shown signs of an inverted yield curve, although the predictive power inherent in such movements proved to be biased earlier this decade. This is essentially a way for bond investors to express their expectations that the Fed will push interest rates high enough to suppress economic growth in an effort to curb inflation. “Seeing the 2-year and 10-year yield curves invert or flatten sharply calls into question the narrative that the economy is very strong, which is part of what the bond market is pricing in,” said Zach Griffiths, head of investment grades and macro strategy at CreditSights.
#U.S. debt dynamics#U.S. economy#US Macro Express09-28 14:25
B
September 24th, New York Fed President Williams said that real interest rate expectations are a major factor driving the rise in U.S. Treasury yields.
#U.S. debt dynamics#Federal Reserve News09-24 16:38
B
On September 23, the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield rose to 5.04%, the highest level since 2007.
#U.S. debt dynamics09-23 22:01
A
[The 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield rose above 5% again] On September 23, the U.S. Treasury bond yield rose further; the 10-year Treasury bond yield recently rose 5.81 basis points to 5.025%.
#U.S. debt dynamics09-23 21:52
B
[Study found that 90% of the increase in U.S. bond yields was concentrated in the window of employment data and speeches by Federal Reserve officials] September 23rd, a study found that over the past six years, most of the increases in U.S. benchmark Treasury yields occurred in the three-day window before and after the release of the non-farm payrolls report and speeches by important Federal Reserve officials. Economists including Paul Beaudry, a professor at the Vancouver School of Economics at the University of British Columbia in Canada, Paolo Cavallino of the Bank for International Settlements, and Tim Willems of the Bank of England found that since August 2020, about 90% of the increase in the nominal yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note occurred in just a few days before and after these events.
#EA#US Macro Express#Federal Reserve News#U.S. debt dynamics09-23 20:49
B
[HSBC’s new AI model shows that U.S. Treasury yields are expected to fall in the next month] On September 22, a new machine learning model called Dustin (Directional Us Treasury Indicator) developed by HSBC showed that the signal for U.S. Treasury yields to fall in the next month is relatively clear. HSBC analysts including Thomas Devlin wrote in a report: "The recent sell-off at the front end of the yield curve (3-month and 2-year), coupled with unexpected changes in economic activity data, is pushing Dustin to be more confident that interest rates will move lower in the coming month." Dustin predicts that the probability of a rise in the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield in one month is 28%.
#machine learning#front end#EA#AI#U.S. debt dynamics#Brokerage strategy09-22 16:27
B
[Nasdaq 100 Index futures rose to intraday highs as the Fed's policy outlook reassured investors] On September 17, the futures contract of the Nasdaq 100 Index, which is dominated by technology stocks, expanded to 1.1%. Bond yields fell earlier after the Fed's policy outlook gave investors relief and confidence that it would continue its efforts to curb inflation.
#U.S. stock trends#Federal Reserve News#stock index futures#U.S. debt dynamics09-17 17:17
B
On September 17, U.S. Treasury bonds continued their gains, with the 10-year Treasury bond yield falling 5 basis points to 4.97%.
#U.S. debt dynamics09-17 15:12
B
On September 16th, U.S. Treasury bond yields maintained a downward trend after the release of retail sales and import and export price data; the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield latest fell 1.46 basis points to 4.981%.
#U.S. debt dynamics09-16 20:31
B
[Morgan Asset Management: If the Fed does nothing, it could "shock" the U.S. bond market] On September 16, Iain Stealey, chief investment officer of Fixed Income International at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, said that if the Federal Reserve decides to keep interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, local time, it may "surprise" the market. Traders are now almost certain that the Fed will raise interest rates, so if it does nothing, it could trigger a sell-off in U.S. Treasuries.
#EA#Federal Reserve News#Monetary Policy Trends#U.S. debt dynamics09-16 19:39
B
September 15th: High U.S. bond yields have become more attractive, and U.S. investment consulting firm Marsh raised its U.S. bond allocation to neutral.
#U.S. debt dynamics09-15 17:12
B
On September 14th, U.S. Treasury bond yields edged higher, with 2- to 10-year Treasury bond yields hitting their highs on September 11.
#U.S. debt dynamics09-14 21:18
A
[Short-term U.S. Treasuries lead the decline, traders raise expectations for Fed rate hikes] On September 11, U.S. core CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month, higher than market expectations of 0.2%, pushing the short end of the U.S. bond yield curve to lead the decline. After the data was released, the market further increased its bets on interest rate hikes, with the short-term currently pricing in a tightening of about 23 basis points, higher than the 18 basis points before the data was released. On that day, the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield turned from falling to rising by about 5 basis points, while the long-term yield still fell by about 1 basis point. The spread between the 2-year and 10-year U.S. bond yields narrowed by about 5 basis points from Thursday's closing, and the yield curve flattened. Overnight index swaps show that the market has priced in about 53 basis points of tightening by the end of the year, equivalent to fully pricing in at least two 25 basis point interest rate hikes.
#Federal Reserve News#Monetary Policy Trends#U.S. economy#U.S. debt dynamics09-11 20:42
B
September 11th, after the release of August inflation data in the United States, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond hit its highest level since October 23, 2023.
#U.S. debt dynamics09-11 20:34
B
On September 10th, the U.S. three-year and five-year Treasury bond yields rose 10 basis points during the day.
#U.S. debt dynamics09-10 22:00
B
September 10th: After the European Central Bank raised interest rates, U.S. Treasury bond yields climbed.
#European Central Bank News#U.S. debt dynamics09-10 20:26
B
[The U.S. bond market may face a "big test" next week. "New Bond King": If the Federal Reserve does not raise interest rates, U.S. bonds will suffer a new round of selling] September 9th, "New Bond King" Jeffrey Gundlach warned on Tuesday that if the Federal Reserve remains on hold next week, thus going against market expectations, it may push long-term U.S. Treasury yields to rise further and intensify the historic sell-off in the bond market. Against this backdrop, Gundlach prefers shorter-duration fixed income assets, local currency-denominated emerging market bonds and real assets to longer-dated U.S. Treasuries.
#Federal Reserve News#U.S. debt dynamics#US Macro Express#emerging markets09-09 16:37
B
[JPMorgan is bearish on the risks of U.S. debt and the strong upward momentum of U.S. stocks is unstoppable] On September 8, JP Morgan analysts said that although high inflation and soaring U.S. bond yields pose risks to U.S. stocks, rising corporate earnings growth momentum can still drive the stock market to strength. JPMorgan believes that if inflation expectations are not unanchored, unfavorable factors will be difficult to change the positive trend of U.S. stocks; if the solid macro outlook continues to be confirmed, it will support the further rise of the stock market.
#Qualcomm#U.S. stock trends#U.S. debt dynamics#Brokerage strategy09-08 14:22
B
September 3rd, Waller said that the United States is facing an unsustainable structural deficit and the premium paid for U.S. government debt may be disappearing.
#U.S. debt dynamics#US debt crisis09-03 21:03
B
[Schroeder buys longer-term U.S. Treasury bonds and believes that the current yield level is attractive] On September 3, the British asset management company Schroeder increased its holdings of longer-term U.S. Treasury bonds, saying that after the recent decline in the bond market, yields are about to peak. Johanna Kyrklund, global chief investment officer, said of the 10-year U.S. bond, “From a valuation perspective, its attractiveness has become more attractive than before,” adding, “After the recent market decline, we believe there are opportunities to hold some duration. Schroders has $1.15 trillion in assets under management. The firm added duration over the summer and added further in recent weeks. Kyrklund said in an interview on Thursday that Schroders adjusted its global bond allocation position to be slightly overweight duration, compared with underweight for most of this year and most of the past few years.
#Big asset management tracking#U.S. debt dynamics09-03 17:23