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[Short-term U.S. Treasuries lead the decline, traders raise expectations for Fed rate hikes] On September 11, U.S. core CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month, higher than market expectations of 0.2%, pushing the short end of the U.S. bond yield curve to lead the decline. After the data was released, the market further increased its bets on interest rate hikes, with the short-term currently pricing in a tightening of about 23 basis points, higher than the 18 basis points before the data was released. On that day, the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield turned from falling to rising by about 5 basis points, while the long-term yield still fell by about 1 basis point. The spread between the 2-year and 10-year U.S. bond yields narrowed by about 5 basis points from Thursday's closing, and the yield curve flattened. Overnight index swaps show that the market has priced in about 53 basis points of tightening by the end of the year, equivalent to fully pricing in at least two 25 basis point interest rate hikes.
Federal Reserve News 🕐 2026-09-11 20:42

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