B[TSMC’s second JASM fab in Japan has been approved to switch to 3nm chip production] On October 18, according to a recent announcement on the official website of Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, the plan to convert JASM’s second wafer fab, a Japanese joint venture controlled by TSMC, to produce 3nm chips has been officially approved by Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry. It is understood that JASM’s second wafer fab had previously planned to produce 40-nanometer, 12-nanometer, and 6-nanometer process chips, with a total designed monthly production capacity of 63,000 wafers. B[The trend of U.S. technology stocks has been torn in the past 20 days, and memory chip stocks have suffered heavy losses] On October 16, the trends of U.S. technology stocks in the past 20 days were obviously divided. Meta and Microsoft rose by 8.42% and 7.57% respectively, Apple rose by 2.63%, Google A and Google C fell by 1.45% and 1.09% respectively, and Nvidia fell by 1.97%. Chip stocks performed even weaker, with Micron Technology falling 11.42%, SK Hynix falling 25.70%, Broadcom and TSMC falling 5.88% and 4.42% respectively; on the other hand, Walmart and Eli Lilly rose 11.30% and 9.66% respectively. Technology stocks no longer rise and fall together, and memory chips have become one of the most prominent sectors in recent corrections. A[Among the top ten companies in the U.S. stock market by market capitalization, only Apple has risen, while large technology stocks are generally under pressure] As of press time on October 16, the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 1.2%, and large U.S. technology stocks generally weakened. Among the top ten companies by market capitalization listed in the screenshot, only Apple rose by 1.12%, and the other nine companies all fell. Broadcom fell 2.52%, SpaceX fell 2.28%, Meta fell 2.14%, TSMC fell 1.98%, Microsoft fell 1.62%, Google A fell 1.61%, and Nvidia fell 0.28%. A[Morning News Selection on October 16th]
1. According to the spokesperson of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Li Qiang will visit Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, attend the 25th meeting of the Council of Heads of Government (Prime Ministers) of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization member states, and go to Russia to hold the 31st regular meeting between the prime ministers of China and Russia.
2. When attending the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting, Pan Gongsheng said that the People's Bank of China will continue to implement moderately loose monetary policies to create a good monetary and financial environment for China's stable economic growth and the smooth operation of financial markets.
3. When attending the meeting of G20 finance ministers and central bank governors, Lan Fo'an stated that more proactive fiscal policies will be implemented accurately and effectively to promote the continued development of the economy in a new and better direction and inject confidence and certainty into the world economy.
4. In response to the recent significant increase in the interest in long-term government bond yield trading, some securities firms and banks have received reminders from regulatory authorities, requiring relevant institutions to strengthen bond investment risk management.
5. The Sichuan Communications Administration issued the “15th Five-Year Plan for the Development of Information and Communications Industry in Sichuan Province”. The "Plan" proposes that by 2030, a key information infrastructure backup base serving the national strategic hinterland, an information and communication highland leading the digital and intelligent development of the western region, and a nationally influential network province will be built.
6. In response to the "breakage problem of the Zunjie V800 car brake pedal bracket" reported on the Internet, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other three departments set up a joint investigation team to conduct verification and handle it in accordance with laws and regulations. The relevant situation will be announced in time.
7. Tuojing Technology announced that the chairman proposed to repurchase shares of 200 million to 300 million yuan; Pengding Holdings announced that the chairman proposed to repurchase shares of 300 million to 500 million yuan; Baiwei Storage announced that the controlling shareholder proposed to repurchase A shares of 200 million to 250 million yuan to cancel and reduce registered capital; Tianfu Communications announced that the controlling shareholder proposed to repurchase A shares of 100 million to 150 million yuan; Xinyi Sheng announced that the controlling shareholder proposed to repurchase A shares of 800 million to 1 billion yuan.
8. Shanghai Electric Co., Ltd. announced that the controlling shareholder proposed a cash dividend of no less than 2.2 billion yuan in 2026.
9. Zhongke Sugon announced that its net profit in the first three quarters increased by 78.48% year-on-year; Ganfeng Lithium announced that its net profit in the first three quarters increased by 19,541% year-on-year; Han's CNC announced that its net profit in the first three quarters increased by 214% year-on-year.
10. Shennan Circuit announced that its net profit in the first three quarters is expected to increase by 74%-78% year-on-year; Guangxun Technology announced that its net profit in the first three quarters is expected to increase by 65%-82% year-on-year; Haiguang Information announced that its net profit in the first three quarters is expected to increase by 38%-52% year-on-year; Rockchip Weibo announced that its net profit in the first three quarters is expected to increase by 68%-73% year-on-year; Longsys announced that its net profit in the first three quarters is expected to increase by 1865%-1991% year-on-year; Fudan Microelectronics announced that its net profit in the first three quarters is expected to increase by 188%-248% year-on-year.
11. CICC Gold announced that its net profit in the first three quarters is expected to increase by 50%-58% year-on-year; Han's Laser announced that its net profit in the first three quarters is expected to increase by 145%-157% year-on-year; Muxi Shares announced that its net profit in the first three quarters is expected to be 5.8% 700 million to 717 million yuan, turning a loss into a profit year-on-year; Guangku Technology announced that its net profit in the first three quarters is expected to increase by 142%-162% year-on-year; Hengyi Petrochemical announced that its net profit in the first three quarters is expected to increase by 3319%-3405% year-on-year.
12. Fed Hammaker said that if public inflation expectations deteriorate, the Fed may need to take more aggressive actions to respond.
13. The U.S. PPI in September increased by 6.3% year-on-year, and was estimated to be 5.3%; it increased by 1.3% month-on-month, and was estimated to be 0.6%.
14. Israeli officials said that the United States and Israel are consulting on a plan to attack Iran.
15. The U.S. Central Command stated that Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ statement that it controls the Strait of Hormuz is untrue. The United States and its regional partners still control the relevant waters and commercial ships continue to pass through.
16. Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that Russia will respond to attacks launched by Ukraine on Russian oil refineries and other logistics and energy facilities.
17. Cook said that the Apple smart phone and related Alibaba Qianwen large model have indeed been approved and will release a test version later in October; but Siri AI is not included.
18. Google Quantum Artificial Intelligence released a major breakthrough in quantum computing, and the Willow chip project broke through key resource bottlenecks.
19. Meta released the open weight model Muse Spark Open and cooperated with Apple to promote this model to run locally on Mac computers.
20. Some investors attending Anthropic’s investor day event on Wednesday discussed a valuation of about $1.5 trillion, people familiar with the matter reported.
21. TSMC expects the company’s fourth-quarter sales to be US$52.3 billion to US$54.3 billion; the demand for CPUs for AI robots is growing, and the demand still far exceeds the current supply capacity.
22. The three major U.S. stock indexes collectively closed higher. The Dow rose 1.08%, the Nasdaq rose 0.08%, and the S&P 500 rose 0.33%. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index once fell more than 4% and finally closed down 0.88%, marking the seventh consecutive day of decline. The Storage Concept Index opened lower and closed higher.
23. The settlement price of WTI crude oil futures rose 3.03%, and the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures fell 0.13%; COMEX gold futures closed up 2.06%, and COMEX silver futures rose 3.09%. B[Alibaba and TSMC are listed to expand U.S. stock options trading hours next week] October 16th, as the U.S. stock market essentially enters “24-hour trading,” options matching stocks will also see an expansion of trading hours. According to an announcement from the Chicago Board Options Exchange (Cboe), its Cboe Options Exchange (C1) will add morning and after-hours trading sessions for designated stock and ETF options starting next Monday. Options on popular companies such as Alibaba, TSMC, NVIDIA, Apple, and Tesla are all covered by the announcement. For investors, the most direct change is that these stock options can participate in pre-market trading of U.S. stocks from 7:30 to 9:25 a.m. ET, or continue trading for 15 minutes after the end of regular trading. This coverage includes the "Seven Big Tech" in the U.S. stock market, as well as popular companies such as AMD, Broadcom, Intel, Micron, Oracle, Marvell Technology, SanDisk, Palantir, and Robinhood. Alibaba, TSMC, Nokia, Pfizer, Bank of America, and Ford are also on the announcement list. A[Selected evening news on October 15th]
1. In response to the recent significant increase in the interest in long-term government bond yield trading, some securities firms and banks have received reminders from regulatory authorities, requiring relevant institutions to strengthen bond investment risk management.
2. TSMC’s net profit in the third quarter was NT$763.06 billion, a year-on-year increase of 68.7%; it confirmed that capital expenditures in 2026 are expected to be US$60 billion to US$64 billion.
3. After the United States released CPI data that exceeded expectations, the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in October has increased. Senior forecaster: No change expected in October.
4. Cook said that Apple Smart and related Alibaba Qianwen large models have indeed been approved, and a test version will be released in China at the end of October, including real-time translation, writing tools, photo cleaning tools, etc.
5. Company news: ① Guangxun Technology: Net profit in the first three quarters is expected to increase by 65%-82% year-on-year. Demand for datacom optical modules is growing rapidly. ②Muxi Shares: Net profit in the first three quarters is expected to be 587 million yuan-717 million yuan, turning losses into profits year-on-year. ③ Haiguang Information: Net profit in the first three quarters is expected to increase by 38%-52% year-on-year. Domestic demand for high-end chips continues to rise. ④ Sugon: Net profit in the first three quarters increased by 78.48% year-on-year. ⑤ Baiwei Storage: The controlling shareholder proposed to repurchase 200 million to 250 million yuan of A shares to cancel and reduce registered capital. ⑥Tianfu Communications: The controlling shareholder proposed to repurchase A shares for 100 million to 150 million yuan. ⑦Shanghai Electric Co., Ltd.: The controlling shareholder proposed a cash dividend of no less than 2.2 billion yuan in 2026. ⑧Xinyisheng: The controlling shareholder proposed to buy back 800 million to 1 billion A shares. ⑨ Longsys: Net profit in the first three quarters is expected to increase by 1865%-1991% year-on-year. A[The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 3.65% at the opening and stocks in the AI hardware sector plummeted] On October 15th, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 3.65% at the opening and is now at 11,257 points. NVIDIA's stock price fell 3.09%, TSMC's stock price fell 4.22%, Broadcom's stock price fell 2.55%, SK Hynix's stock price fell 5.7%, Micron Technology's stock price fell 4.05%, AMD's stock price fell 5.48%, ASML's stock price fell 2.25%, Intel's stock price fell 5.51%, Lam Group's stock price fell 4.66%, Applied Materials' stock price fell 3.59%, ARM's stock price fell 4.13%. A[Overview of U.S. stock market pre-market news: Cook said Apple Smart plans to release a test version in China at the end of October; Terafab may usher in its first EUV lithography machine in the middle of next year; U.S. debt "risk-off trade" is back] On October 15th, the financial news in the U.S. stock market that investors need to focus on is as follows:
1. The three major U.S. stock index futures rose or fell mixedly. Dow Jones futures rose 0.35%, S&P 500 futures fell 0.31%, and Nasdaq 100 futures fell 1.25%.
2. International oil prices have been mixed. WTI crude oil futures prices rose 0.33% to US$95.400/barrel; Brent crude oil futures prices fell 1.18% to US$104.804/barrel.
3. International gold and silver spot prices rose collectively. Spot gold prices rose 1.20% to US$4,154.39 per ounce; spot silver prices rose 1.94% to US$56.70 per ounce.
4. Most of the three major European stock indexes rose. Britain's FTSE 100 index rose 0.77%, France's CAC40 index rose 0.27%, and Germany's DAX30 index fell 0.39%.
5. During a visit to Shanghai, Cook, executive chairman of Apple’s board of directors, said that Apple’s smart phone and related Alibaba Qianwen large model have indeed been approved and will release a test version later in October, but do not include Siri AI.
6. Musk’s chip project Terafab may usher in its first ASML EUV lithography equipment in the middle of next year. Terafab's initial chips are expected to still use traditional chip equipment to match Intel's 14A process.
7. TSMC stated that capital expenditures in 2026 are expected to be US$60 billion to US$64 billion; the CPU demand for AI agents is growing, far exceeding the existing supply capacity; it is discussing with Musk whether it can utilize TeraFab's idle production capacity.
8. Concerns about the credit risk of AI cloud service provider CoreWeave have further intensified, with its five-year credit default swap (CDS) spread exceeding 1,000 basis points, reflecting market concerns about its debt repayment and refinancing capabilities.
9. Rocket Lab once again postponed the first flight plan of its new high-thrust rocket Neutron, delaying its first launch to 2027. Rocket Lab shares fell nearly 12% before the market opened.
10. Goldman Sachs expects Google’s capital expenditures next year to be close to US$350 billion, maintaining a “buy” rating on Google and a target price of US$435.
11. The decline in U.S. stocks combined with the attraction of yields has led to the resurgence of the "safe-haven trade" in U.S. bonds. U.S. bond prices have continued their recent gains, driving yields across all maturities lower. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell 10 basis points to 5.08% during the day. A[TSMC: It is expected that Q4 demand will continue to be strong. The CPU demand for AI intelligent agents far exceeds the current supply capacity] October 15th, TSMC released its third quarter 2026 results on the afternoon of October 15th and held an analyst meeting to introduce performance guidance, industry demand, capital expenditures, process/capacity and other aspects. The core content is as follows:
(1) About performance guidance
① The company expects sales in the fourth quarter to be US$52.3 billion to US$54.3 billion, while the market estimates US$50.35 billion; the company expects gross profit margin in the fourth quarter to be 65-67% (66.4% in the third quarter).
② The company expects revenue in 2026 to grow by approximately 44% in U.S. dollars, compared with the previous forecast of slightly more than 40%.
③There is no upper limit to profitability, but substantial improvement will not happen overnight.
(2) Regarding the demand for artificial intelligence
① We have firm confidence in the general trend of artificial intelligence. The demand for AI continues to grow, and demand in Q4 is expected to continue to be strong.
②The CPU demand for AI agents is growing, and the demand still far exceeds the current supply capacity.
(3) Regarding capital expenditures
①Capital expenditure in 2026 is expected to be US$60 billion-64 billion.
② We will remain cautious in our business planning for 2027, and it is too early to disclose the amount of capital expenditures after this year.
(4) About process/capacity
① The demand for advanced processes is very strong, and a new 3-nanometer process wafer fab will be built in Tainan.
②We are discussing with Musk whether we can utilize TeraFab’s idle production capacity. Any factory cooperation must be led by TSMC.
③We are considering expanding U.S. production capacity outside of Arizona and are conducting site selection evaluations in Texas.
④The A14 chip will start mass production in 2028.
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