B[Cloud service provider CoreWeave's bonds plunged into distress territory] October 14th, according to Trace quotation data, AI cloud computing service provider CoreWeave's unsecured bonds due in 2032 fell to less than 80% of their face value on Wednesday, attracting the attention of Silicon Valley leaders Chamath Palihapitiya and Elon Musk. At this price, the bond yields more than 15%. After Palihapitiya mentioned this number on social media, Musk responded by calling it "scary." CoreWeave's credit default swaps (CDS) rose to record highs again. At current levels, market pricing suggests the company has a greater than 50% chance of defaulting within the next five years. CoreWeave's share price performance was also surprising, falling 16% during the session on Wednesday. D.A. Davidson analyst Gil Luria, who has previously called CoreWeave a "subprime tranche" in the field of AI, warned in a podcast on Wednesday that if the AI financing boom subsides and CoreWeave is unable to repay its costly debt, its stock price could fall to zero. A[A list of US stock market pre-market news: Apple is expanding the production capacity of the foldable iPhone Duo; Broadcom CEO said that AI computing demand will exceed supply in the next two years; Musk said that only three companies have enough programming training data] October 12th, the financial news of the US stock market that investors need to focus on is as follows:
1. The three major U.S. stock index futures rose or fell mixedly. Dow Jones futures rose 0.09%, S&P 500 futures rose 0.02%, and Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.26%.
2. International oil prices rose collectively. WTI crude oil futures prices rose 1.78% to US$93.483/barrel; Brent crude oil futures prices rose 1.64% to US$106.434/barrel.
3. International gold and silver spot prices both fell. Spot gold prices fell 0.79% to US$4,161.34 per ounce; spot silver prices fell by 0.44% to US$60.52 per ounce.
4. The three major European stock indexes rose across the board. Britain's FTSE 100 index rose 0.83%, France's CAC40 index rose 0.49%, and Germany's DAX30 index rose 0.82%.
5. Apple’s chief operating officer said that the team has been advancing manufacturing development for the first foldable screen mobile phone iPhone Duo and is currently expanding production scale in accordance with Apple’s consistent high-quality standards.
6. Musk said that to build truly outstanding AI, a large amount of training data is needed and programming must be mastered. There are only three institutions with sufficient programming training data: OpenAI, Anthropic and Cursor owned by SpaceX, and Google can barely be counted.
7. Tesla’s second-generation sports car Roadster will be released on Thursday. Market rumors say the sports car will have the function of hovering.
8. Broadcom CEO said that the demand for AI computing will exceed supply in the next two years, but most companies’ investment in AI computing will not return.
9. Cloud computing service provider IREN rose more than 4% before the market opened. It was reported that the company had reached a multi-year cloud agreement with Anthropic.
10. Bernstein estimates that the new electricity demand in the United States will be approximately 1,000 terawatt hours between 2025 and 2030. Among them, data centers are expected to bear more than half of the new load.
11. The 2026 Nobel Prize in Economics was announced: Stanford University economist Robert E. Hall and Columbia University economist Michael Woodford won the award in recognition of their research on the microeconomic foundations of macroeconomic stability. B[National Railway Administration: Carry out research on the application of artificial intelligence technology in trains, infrastructure, operation and maintenance systems] On October 12, the National Railway Administration issued the "15th Five-Year Plan for Railway Science and Technology Innovation". It mentioned that basic research on the application of "artificial intelligence + railway" should be deepened. Based on technologies such as artificial intelligence, the Internet of Things, big data and cloud computing, and using massive data on railway operations and maintenance, a railway-specific artificial intelligence model capable of accurate prediction and intelligent decision-making is established. Carry out research on the application of artificial intelligence technology in trains, infrastructure and operation and maintenance systems, explore the digital upgrade application of artificial intelligence technology in trains, infrastructure and intelligent operation and maintenance, and achieve safe online assessment of train operations and personalized service customization. Strengthen research on full-scenario system safety assurance technology, continue to carry out research on constitutive safety, active safety and information security of railway equipment, and accelerate the construction of system solutions for full life cycle services. Build a digital platform for railway industry supervision and build an "artificial intelligence + railway" national-level safety evaluation and risk assessment system. B[China's software business revenue exceeded 10 trillion yuan from January to August, a year-on-year increase of 8.8%] On October 8, it was learned from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology that in the first eight months of this year, China's software business revenue exceeded 10 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.8%, and the total software industry profit increased by 1.3% year-on-year; software business exports were US$45.99 billion, a year-on-year increase of 12.5%. The operation performance by field shows that the revenue of software products has grown steadily. In the first eight months, software product revenue increased by 6% year-on-year, accounting for 21.5% of the industry's revenue. Information technology service revenue continued to grow in the first eight months, accounting for 68.7% of the industry's revenue. Among them, cloud computing and big data services achieved a total revenue growth of 11.1% year-on-year, accounting for 17.3% of information technology service revenue. A[Overview of U.S. stock market pre-market news: AMD said it was "very satisfied" with HBM4; Google cooperated with Unity to launch a next-generation AI gaming platform; the 30-year U.S. bond yield rose above 5.7%] On October 7, the financial news of the U.S. stock market that investors need to focus on is as follows:
1. Futures on the three major U.S. stock indexes fell collectively. Dow Jones futures fell 0.87%, S&P 500 futures fell 0.50%, and Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.86%.
2. International oil prices both rose. WTI crude oil futures prices rose 0.70% to US$90.064/barrel; Brent crude oil futures prices rose 1.18% to US$101.770/barrel.
3. International gold and silver spot prices plunged in the short term. Spot gold prices fell 2.14% to US$4,074.88 per ounce; spot silver prices fell by 3.83% to US$58.98 per ounce.
4. The three major European stock indexes fell across the board. Britain's FTSE 100 index fell 0.64%, France's CAC40 index fell 1.26%, and Germany's DAX30 index fell 1.36%.
5. AMD CEO Su Zifeng said that AMD is working on optimizing memory under tight supply. It has received strong support from Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix in terms of HBM. AMD is "very satisfied" with HBM4.
6. Musk said that his subsidiaries will independently build and operate Terafab, a terawatt-level chip manufacturing project, ruling out the possibility of TSMC taking over and operating this project.
7. Lambda, a cloud computing startup backed by Nvidia, is raising up to $4 billion in funding, with a pre-money valuation of $14.5 billion. Its AI computing power backlog had grown to US$50 billion by September.
8. Google and Unity have reached a cooperation on a new AI game platform for the next generation of interactive entertainment, and will launch the Unity Spark creation platform later this year.
9. The latest report from Aterio, a data center research institution, shows that Oracle’s 1.3GW data center project “Project Lighthouse” in Wisconsin, USA, faces the risk of power supply delays. Under the baseline scenario, full power supply may be postponed to October 2028, and under the extension scenario, it may be postponed to April 2029.
10. The 2026 Nobel Prize in Chemistry will be awarded to Henri B. Kagan and Kenso Soai for their "discovery of nonlinear effects and autocatalysis in asymmetric organic synthesis."
11. The yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond rose above 5.7%, rising more than 6 basis points during the day and continuing to hit the highest level since 2002.
12. Bank of America strategists said that the attractiveness of U.S. debt has increased, forming "real competition" with U.S. stocks for the first time in decades. The current 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has exceeded 5%, and its team’s valuation framework shows that the return rate of the S&P 500 Index in the next 10 years may not reach this level. B[The proportion of individual investors in ETF investment continues to expand, and three types of theme ETFs are popular] October 3rd, the proportion of individual investors in ETF investment continues to expand. According to statistics from the Fund Observation Room, among the 48 newly listed ETFs since September, individual investors accounted for more than 80%, and in 19 of them, individual investors accounted for more than 90%. In terms of investment types, theme and industry ETFs are the most popular products among individual investors. Taking the 48 ETFs listed in September as an example, 37 have a listing share of less than 300 million shares, and there are two products with a listing share of more than 1 billion shares. From the perspective of investment fields, newly listed ETFs are mainly concentrated in the following three parts: first, GEM computing power ETFs; second, science and technology growth theme ETFs such as science and technology chips, science and technology materials, cloud computing, etc.; third, dividends, banks, cash flow and other stable varieties. B[Nary Radar: Plans to acquire 51% equity of Xintai Communication for 162 million yuan] On September 30, Narui Radar (688522.SH) announced that the company plans to acquire 51% equity of Guangzhou Xintai Communication Technology Co., Ltd. with 162 million yuan of its own funds. After the transaction is completed, Xintai Communication will become the company’s holding subsidiary. The target company was established in 2013 and is committed to providing comprehensive optical transmission systems and optical transmission optimization solutions. It is a domestic manufacturer of optical communication products and a provider of optical transmission solutions. Products include wavelength division optical transmission systems, DCI metropolitan wavelength division systems, OTN intelligent optical network systems, optical amplification systems, optical protection systems, optical device product series (including active optical module product series, CWDM/DWDM/AWG passive wavelength division multiplexers, optical splitters, dispersion compensation, optical switches, etc.). The products are mainly used in telecom operators, ISP, IDC, power, electronics, information communications, network security, cloud computing and other industries. The acquisition aims to achieve technology and market synergy. The counterparty of the transaction promises that the target company's non-net profits from 2026 to 2028 will be no less than 25 million yuan, 29 million yuan and 38 million yuan respectively. B[Beijing: Promote the widespread application of artificial intelligence, cloud computing, etc. in the field of cultural tourism] On September 28, the Beijing Municipal People's Government issued the "Beijing Culture and Tourism Development Plan during the 15th Five-Year Plan Period", which proposed to enrich the supply of cultural tourism products. Continue to develop cultural tourism products with the cultural characteristics of ancient capitals and strengthen world cultural heritage tourism represented by Beijing’s central axis. Accelerate the development of new technology tourism scenarios and promote the widespread application of artificial intelligence, cloud computing, virtual reality, ultra-high-definition audio-visual, etc. in the field of cultural tourism. Cultivate a new model of industrial tourism and build an industrial tourism product system with capital characteristics that integrates tourism, shopping and experience. Enrich new fashionable national tourism formats, encourage the development of creative fashionable products, promote the expansion and upgrading of "Beijing Gifts", and build a fashionable tourism product system with international scope, Beijing flavor and trendy sense. B[China Academy of Information and Communications Technology He Yang: China is initially ready to carry out computing power futures research] On September 27, He Yang, deputy director of the Cloud Computing and Digital Research Institute of the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology, said that from the perspective of urgency, the rapid development of artificial intelligence has driven the continued growth of computing power demand, and the market scale continues to expand. It is urgent to establish a market-oriented pricing and risk hedging mechanism that adapts to it. At the same time, the international market has begun to deploy computing power financial products. The Institute of Cloud Computing and Digitalization of the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology has also carried out continuous research on computing power finance for the past two years, and has accumulated a certain foundation in the computing power financial index system, computing power billing measurement, computing power futures and other derivatives. Currently, we are in an important window period from theoretical research to industrial practice exploration. It is necessary to carry out system design and market cultivation in advance to reserve space for future innovative development. Overall, China has initially met the conditions to carry out research and exploration on computing power futures, but there are still some key links that need to be cleared before the official launch of mature computing power futures products. A[Overnight global news you need to know on Saturday: There is another major progress in the U.S.-Iran negotiations, Federal Reserve officials are releasing hawkish signals intensively, Apple has reached a new record closing high, and U.S. bond yields continue to soar]
1. The President of Iran stated that Tehran is willing to restore the Islamabad Understanding and fulfill relevant commitments.
2. Iran’s Foreign Minister stated that Iran has conveyed a specific 7-day plan to the United States. If the United States accepts it, the Strait of Hormuz will be opened.
3. U.S. officials stated that the United States is having active and constructive discussions with Iran through intermediaries on the "7-Day Plan" and that the two sides continue to communicate on the nuclear issue.
4. Fed Hammaker said that potential inflation may be higher than the target and the Fed needs to ensure that monetary policy is in a restrictive stance to reduce inflation.
5. Fed Schmid said that the Fed still has not solved the inflation problem.
6. Fed’s Williams said that continued supply shocks cannot be ignored.
7. The Federal Reserve is developing a plan to raise the asset threshold that triggers stricter regulation of large banks, four people familiar with the matter said.
8. During the session on Friday, U.S. Treasury bond yields continued to soar, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield rising to more than 5.22%; the 30-year Treasury bond yield exceeded 5.5%, continuing to hit a new high since 2004.
9. Goldman Sachs said it expects capital expenditures by ultra-large-scale cloud computing companies in the United States to reach approximately US$800 billion in 2026, and the market generally expects this to further rise to US$1.1 trillion in 2027.
10. Meta lost the lawsuit in New Mexico, USA, and may face a fine of up to US$219 billion.
11. Anthropic is negotiating a data center capacity deal with a scale of 1 gigawatt, and the related investment is expected to be at least US$40 billion.
12. Tesla has reportedly increased production of its Optimus humanoid robot by about 10 times in recent months, but the company is still struggling to achieve reliable production at scale.
13. Microsoft released a new version of Copilot, introducing three major AI functions: Home, Code and Autopilot.
14. AI cloud computing company Nscale raised US$3.36 billion through convertible notes before its IPO.
15. Sources said that Solidigm, a subsidiary of SK Hynix, plans to conduct an initial public offering in 2027, with a valuation that may reach US$150 billion.
16. EVONIK stated that BASF proposed a non-binding intention and the two parties did not conduct any negotiations.
17. U.S. stocks opened higher and the three major indexes collectively closed higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.93%, a cumulative gain of 0.28% this week, ending three consecutive weekly losses; the S&P 500 Index rose 0.51%, a cumulative gain of 1.22% this week; the Nasdaq rose 0.48%, a cumulative gain of 2.06% this week; the S&P 500 Index and the Nasdaq Composite Index rose for two consecutive weeks. Apple rose more than 1%, setting another record closing high, with its total market value approaching US$5 trillion. Most major European stock indexes closed higher, with Germany's DAX30 index rising 0.51%.
18. The settlement price of international crude oil futures closed down more than 2%. WTI crude oil futures November contract fell 2.33%, Brent crude oil futures November contract fell 2.14%.
19. COMEX gold futures rose 0.52% to US$4,320.5 per ounce, down 2.36% this week; COMEX silver futures rose 1.11% to US$64.71 per ounce, down 3.63% this week.
20. Russian President Vladimir Putin said that Ukraine has recently begun attacking civilian facilities in Russia and must now face the consequences.
21. Russian Presidential Press Secretary Peskov said on September 25 that a tripartite meeting between Russia, the United States, and Ukraine may be held in the near future, but there are currently no specific details.
22. Iranian President Pezhechiyan reiterated on the 24th that Iran "absolutely" does not want to possess nuclear weapons and is willing to reduce uranium enrichment levels and accept inspections within the framework of international law.
23. Senior Iranian officials reportedly said that the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed until Iran's conditions are met before nuclear negotiations with the United States can begin.
24. German lawmakers approved a new fuel tax relief plan worth 2.5 billion euros. A[List of pre-market news in the U.S. stock market: The United States and Iran were exposed to discuss a phased agreement, U.S. stock futures rose slightly, and oil prices fell 2%] On September 25, the financial news in the U.S. stock market that investors need to focus on is as follows:
1. The three major U.S. stock index futures rose slightly, with the Dow Jones Index futures rising 0.28%, the S&P 500 Index futures rising 0.25%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index futures rising 0.39%.
2. International oil prices fell 2%, with WTI crude oil futures prices falling 2.24% to US$92.495/barrel; Brent crude oil futures prices falling 2.03% to US$98.186/barrel.
3. International gold and silver spot prices both rose. The spot gold price rose 0.60% to US$4,299.36 per ounce; the spot silver price rose by 1.21% to US$64.60 per ounce.
4. European stock indexes rose slightly, with the British FTSE 100 index rising by 0.23%, the French CAC40 index rising by 0.17%, the German DAX30 index rising by 0.69%, and the FTSE Italian MIB index rising by 0.78%.
5. Goldman Sachs said that the largest AI infrastructure company in the United States needs to achieve annual AI revenue of approximately US$300 billion in the next few years to achieve breakeven on large-scale capital investment. It is expected that the capital expenditure of ultra-large-scale cloud computing companies in the United States will reach approximately US$800 billion in 2026, and the market is generally expected to further rise to US$1.1 trillion in 2027.
6. Microsoft released a new version of Copilot, introducing three major AI functions: Home, Code and Autopilot.
7. The Federal Reserve is developing a plan to raise the asset threshold that triggers stricter supervision of large banks, four people familiar with the matter said, a move that would save some lenders from expensive additional regulatory costs and could promote industry consolidation.
8. Iranian President Pezhechiyan reiterated on the 24th that Iran "absolutely" does not want to possess nuclear weapons and is willing to reduce uranium enrichment levels and accept inspections within the framework of international law.
9. Russian Presidential Press Secretary Peskov said on September 25 that a tripartite meeting between Russia, the United States, and Ukraine may be held in the near future, but there are currently no specific details.
10. Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi told the media during the general debate of the United Nations General Assembly on the 24th that Iran has submitted a new negotiation draft to the United States and will "reopen" the Strait of Hormuz and restart negotiations.
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