Abstract:
Physical games by 2030 may no longer mean complete discs or cartridges in the box. Two market analysts believe that the physical packaging is still expected to be retained, but the game media in it may gradually be converted into download vouchers, and the ownership and resale rights obtained by players will also become key differences.
Perry Gresham, director of data at MIDiA Research, said the numbers in the financial report may have exaggerated the decline in physical demand. PC and mobile games are almost completely digital. Some games no longer have physical versions. Digital revenue often includes in-game consumption. At the same time, second-hand physical game transactions are usually not included in publishers' financial reports.
Recent research by YouGov shows that 51% of US console players usually prefer discs or cartridges, and permanent ownership is the most commonly cited reason for physical version buyers. Gresham predicts that the decline in the physical market may slow down closer to 2030 as users who still buy physical games place more emphasis on ownership, resale and collection.
Supply changes may occur sooner than demand disappears. Sony plans to end disc production in 2028, but new PlayStation games will still be sold through retail channels, just in digital form. Omdia predicts that physical versions will still account for slightly less than 40% of complete game purchases on Nintendo platforms in 2026.
Omdia senior analyst James McWhorter believes that the cost of Switch 2 game cards is relatively high, and the key card can reduce the cost of a single copy and make it easier for publishers to adjust prices after release. Relying on downloaded versions can also delay the locking time before sending to the factory for production, leaving more room for the development team to finish.
The Switch 2 key card itself does not save game data, but it is not a one-time redemption code. It can still be loaned and resold after downloading, and it does not require binding a Nintendo eShop account. In contrast, boxed download codes are bound to a digital account after redemption, and the physical package no longer contains a transferable copy of the game.
The limitation of this type of solution is that the first installation still relies on online game data, but data can also be transferred locally between Switch 2 devices. Analysts believe that whether physical or digital purchases are made in the future, whether they can be played offline, transferred, resold, and whether they can continue to access them after many years will affect players' judgment on ownership.
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