Abstract:
Apple’s first foldable screen phone, iPhone Duo, has not yet been launched for sale, but market research firm Counterpoint Research predicts that Apple will sell about 6 million units in 2026. Analyst Lin Yifan pointed out that the final sales volume depends on how quickly Apple increases production capacity for this new machine.
The production problems of iPhone Duo have appeared in pre-launch rumors many times before. According to reports, Foxconn’s current assembly yield rate is slightly above 60%, and it is expected to take half a year to a year to meet the high standards required by Apple. The production line is not yet mature, which also makes the actual delivery quantity uncertain.
Looking at Apple's overall manufacturing scale alone, 6 million units is not too much. Apple expects to produce approximately 80 million iPhones, including iPhone 18 Pro, iPhone 18 Pro Max and iPhone Duo, within six months from the fourth quarter of 2026 to the first quarter of 2027, with the vast majority of production coming from non-folding models. However, the estimate of 6 million units corresponds to the last few months of 2026, and the time window is shorter than the above overall forecast; Counterpoint believes that this number is closer to the usual production scale of a folding screen mobile phone, rather than a mainstream iPhone model.
Even if the sales volume is lower than that of other Apple iPhone products, iPhone Duo is still expected to drive attention and sales growth in the folding screen mobile phone market, and competing brands may also benefit from it. The introduction of foldable models may also increase consumer interest in Apple's regular iPhone product line.
Considering that the first-generation product production line is still immature and the sales expectations relative to the entire folding screen market, the prospects for iPhone Duo are not bad. Related production issues can often improve over time. The launch of the first-generation product can also be viewed as a run-in phase, helping to increase market awareness and resolve manufacturing issues, paving the way for improved second-generation products in the future.
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