ASML's production capacity will be emptied in 2028, EUV lithography machine shipments are expected to reach 120 units

Abstract:

According to Digitimes reports,

Global lithography machine giant ASML released a clear signal in its third quarter 2026 financial report: Driven by the AI-driven expansion of advanced logic and memory chip production, the industry's supply shortage will continue until at least 2028, and ASML's own production capacity has become a key bottleneck in the entire industry chain.

ASML President and CEO Fu Keli bluntly stated that according to the current planned supply capacity in 2027 and 2028, it is still difficult to fully meet customer demand. Some customers have begun to take forward orders for 2029 or even 2030.

Although ASML had previously planned to increase its low numerical aperture EUV and immersion DUV production capacity by approximately 30% each in 2027, in the face of surging demand, the company is studying a further expansion of more than 30% in 2028.

The boom in demand is directly reflected in performance.

ASML’s net sales in the third quarter of 2026 reached 11.662 billion euros (Quick Technology Note: approximately RMB 87.7 billion), a year-on-year increase of 55.2%, reaching a record high.

ASML has raised its annual performance guidance three times in a row during the year, and expects full-year net sales in 2026 to reach 44 billion to 45 billion euros (Quick Technology Note: approximately RMB 331.1 billion to 338.6 billion yuan).

In a seller's market where production capacity is scarce, price increases have become a deterministic event. ASML Chief Financial Officer Dai Houjie revealed that the company has completed value-based pricing communication with major customers, that is, increasing the price of some lithography machine products.

The Bank of America research report predicts that

ASML’s EUV shipments will reach 120 units in 2028, and the average selling price of its products will increase by about 5%,

From logic chips to memory chips, the continued expansion of AI computing infrastructure is greatly lengthening the shortage of photolithography machines. ASML's production capacity bottleneck has become the core variable restricting the speed of global AI chip production expansion.