Abstract:
On September 9, local time, Apple officially launched its first foldable phone, iPhone Duo. The device adopts a book-style inward folding design, equipped with a 7.6-inch inner screen and a 5.4-inch outer screen. The starting price is US$1,999. As soon as the product was released, there were mixed opinions in the market. TrendForce released a research report today stating that
iPhone Duo shipments will be approximately 5 million units in 2026, which will help Apple gain approximately 24.8% market share in the foldable phone market.
The agency pointed out that global foldable mobile phone shipments in 2026 will be approximately 20.2 million units, a slight increase of 0.5% compared with 2025. Excluding Apple's contribution, the total shipments of Android brands in 2026 will be only about 15.2 million units, a year-on-year decrease of more than 20%. The main reason is that the cost of components has increased significantly, and the shipments of various brands have mostly remained the same as the previous year or declined. Under this circumstance, Samsung is expected to ship about 7.1 million units, with a market share of 35.1%; Huawei is expected to ship about 5 million units, with a market share of 24.8%.
Although iPhone Duo is expected to occupy a place in the folding phone market, there is still no shortage of pessimistic arguments in the market.
Forrester analyst Dipanjan Chatterjee said: "This folding iPhone may become a high-priced decoration in the product portfolio, bringing brand image value but failing to bring substantial business growth." He pointed out that this folding iPhone may follow the path of Apple's Vision Pro headset, which is priced at US$3,699 but has not been favored by consumers so far.
Creative Strategies analyst Carolina Milanesi explained the reason: "iPhone Duo is a very interesting device, and many people are curious about it. However, when switching from a traditional mobile phone to a folding mobile phone, the change in software operation methods and the need to relearn the process are indeed a real threshold."
This pessimistic view is not only specific to iPhone Duo, but also spreads to the entire folding phone market.
Analyst Wood pointed out that foldable phones currently launched by Samsung, Huawei and other brands only account for about 2% of overall smartphone sales. According to data and analysis company FDM CCM Insight,
even if Apple’s foldable iPhone is likely to drive market interest and demand, sales of foldable phones are expected to only reach 4% of the overall market in the next ten years.
However, according to TrendForce, iPhone Duo has many advantages as a foldable phone. For example, the inner screen uses an OLED display stack structure composed of ten layers of ultra-thin materials, and is paired with Nano-texture surface treatment, which can reduce the visual visibility of reflections and creases.
It believes that 2026 can be said to be a "structural restructuring year" for the folding mobile phone market. The new demand brought by iPhone Duo at this stage can mainly fill the market gap caused by the adjustment of shipments of existing brands. From a mid- to long-term perspective, Apple’s requirements for display, UTG, hinges and overall machine structure are expected to help mature supply chain technology and expand mass production scale. On the other hand, there are also opportunities to prompt other brands to readjust their folding product strategies and accelerate the improvement of technical specifications and cost reduction.
From a development perspective, AI applications may become an important factor in driving the demand for foldable devices in the next stage.
Trendforce pointed out that as generative and multi-modal AI are gradually introduced into smartphones, usage scenarios will extend from single App operations to real-time translation, content generation, image processing, document summarization and cross-App collaboration.
When unfolded, the foldable phone has a larger display space and can present AI-generated content, original data and other applications at the same time, further amplifying the value of multi-tasking operations and human-computer interaction.
It said that if the foldable large screen can be deeply integrated with AI and multi-tasking interfaces, it will have the opportunity to transform from pure hardware differentiation into a new interface hosting AI applications. This also means that in the next stage of competition for foldable phones, in addition to being thinner, lighter and lower in creases, how to create an AI experience that is different from traditional candy bar phones will also be the key to further expansion of the market.
In terms of hardware, as folding devices gradually mature, technological competition has shifted to thinness and lightweight, low creases and long-term reliability. Crease improvement no longer relies on hinges or a single material, but is moving towards the collaborative design of ultra-thin flexible glass (UTG), optically clear adhesive (OCA), OLED modules and support structures. The stress distribution in the bending area is controlled by matching the material modulus, thickness distribution and stacking position.
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