Abstract:
Earlier this month, Apple's new CEO John Turners showed off the foldable iPhone for the first time at an event. Many U.S. consumers watching the live clips had almost never seriously considered purchasing such devices before. However, "The Information" analyzed that folding models from Huawei, Samsung and other manufacturers have achieved double-digit growth in markets outside North America, and Apple hopes that this market demand can also drive sales of its own flagship iPhone. The hinged smartphone, which unfolds into a large glass screen, is also expected to mitigate an expected decline in global smartphone shipments this year.
iPhone Duo folding dual-screen mobile phone.
Market research firm IDC predicts that Apple will sell 10 million units of the new iPhone Duo foldable phone in the first 12 months after its launch.
Francisco Geronimo, vice president of data and analysis for IDC Europe, Africa and Middle East, said: "Foldable phones bring a new product experience and can attract high-end customers. As long as Apple launches top-notch new products, these users are willing to accept Apple's pricing, especially since this is a brand new product category."
In recent years, Apple has relied on upgraded cameras and chips to add selling points to each generation of iPhones. However, iPhone business revenue has basically stagnated from 2022 to 2025; in the fiscal year ending in September 2025, iPhone revenue increased by only 4% to nearly US$210 billion. (However, driven by the hot sales of the iPhone 17 series, iPhone sales surged 22% in the June quarter, and some users who replaced their phones have not updated their phones in four years.)
Jeronimo said that the iPhone Duo will re-ignite consumers' willingness to frequently replace their phones, prompting people to replace their phones as they did in the past in order to get hot new models, further increasing overall sales.
IDC estimates that the first 10 million iPhone Duo units (including large storage and high-end versions) will generate revenue of US$27 billion. Brokerage forecasts tracked by Yahoo show that this size accounts for about 6% of Apple's total expected revenue in fiscal 2026.
Apple’s first foldable phone is priced much higher than any previous generation of Apple’s iPhone. However, the high pricing has not prevented consumers in other parts of the world from purchasing competing foldable models.
Samsung launched the mainstream market’s first foldable smartphone in 2019; on the eve of Apple’s launch, pre-sales of Samsung’s latest foldable models, such as the $1,900 Galaxy Z Fold8, rose 30% year-on-year.
IDC data shows that global foldable screen smartphone revenue rose 16% last year to US$27 billion; non-folding mobile phone revenue rose 7% to US$550 billion.
Data from Smart Analytics Global shows that the growth of foldable mobile phones mainly comes from Asian markets such as China and South Korea. Last year, foldable models accounted for only 2% of total smartphone sales in North America.
Linda Sui, founder of this research organization, believes that the U.S. market still has room for growth, and Apple users have always been willing to pay for high-priced mobile phones. Existing users who have already purchased the high-priced iPhone Pro and Pro Max series can easily transition to iPhone Duo.
In addition, users can trade in old iPhones for new ones to reduce the upfront expenditure of purchasing the phone. Some newer models participate in discounts, which can directly reduce the price of a large amount.
Sui Linda also mentioned that the installment payment model is becoming more and more popular, and consumers can spread the purchase cost over multiple months, which helps to dispel users' concerns about the high price of iPhone Duo. She predicts iPhone Duo sales will reach 6 million units in 2026 alone.
Apple’s strong brand appeal will even drive the overall folding mobile phone market in the United States, including lower-priced folding competing products from brands such as Samsung.
Sui Linda said: "Apple will complete market education and promote market penetration of the entire folding category."
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