Abstract:
According to reports from Taiwan's "Business Times" citing unnamed supply chain sources, Nvidia may be slowing down its chip orders to TSMC. The report did not specify the specific products, process nodes, order size or timetable involved, and Nvidia and TSMC have not yet responded. Since the source of the information is single, the relevant statements should still be regarded as hearsay.
The report attributes the reason why Nvidia may cut orders to internal and external pressures. Within the company, CEO Huang Renxun sent an email to employees on November 8 to apologize for an extramarital affair; at the same time, Nvidia’s board of directors has launched an independent investigation to verify reports that Huang Renxun had been targeted by foreign intelligence operations. The board said it has no reason to believe that national security or confidential Nvidia information has been compromised.
External pressure mainly comes from export controls. The report pointed out that stricter export inspections and the alleged emergence of H200 chip stocks in Hong Kong may increase the risk of Nvidia reducing orders. The report also quoted foreign media sources as saying that some companies approved to handle H200 chips may be shell companies, which triggered concerns that chips may flow into China through such companies or middlemen in other countries. However, the report itself positioned this content as suspicion rather than confirmed fact.
If Nvidia does reduce orders, the most directly affected will be upstream suppliers such as TSMC and ASE Investment Holdings. The report believes that if Nvidia releases wafer production capacity, AMD and custom chip design companies may quickly fill the gap. AMD's data center business revenue reached US$8.5 billion in the last quarter, a year-on-year increase of 97%, a record high, and its Helios products are accelerating mass production.
In the field of customized chips, MediaTek, Shixin Electronics and Creative Electronics are considered to be likely to benefit from this. According to reports, relevant ASIC suppliers stated that customers are willing to receive all the production capacity that TSMC can provide. At the same time, advanced process production capacity is already tight, and TSMC is said to be considering raising CoWoS advanced packaging prices by up to 20%.
Currently, there is still a lack of official confirmation as to whether Nvidia will actually cut TSMC orders, and the market needs to wait for further information from the two companies or the supply chain.
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