Abstract:
In the early morning of September 10th, Beijing time, Apple officially launched iPhone 18 Pro, iPhone 18 Pro Max and the first folding screen mobile phone iPhone Duo at the 2026 autumn conference. As soon as the press conference ended, the scalper market became agitated in advance. Recently, Blue Whale Technology reporters interviewed many scalpers and channel dealers and learned that this year's scalpers' willingness to receive goods, quotation strength, and stocking scale have significantly exceeded previous years. Cross-regional price differences and tight initial supply have become the main driving forces.
Although officials continue to strengthen rules such as real-name reservations and in-store pickup, scalping transactions have not disappeared, but have turned to more covert and mature methods of operation; under expectations of high premiums, risks such as personal information leakage and financial losses have also emerged.
The number of inquiries before the launch doubled compared with previous years
After the new iPhone was released in previous years, the price difference between the various versions was not large, and the premium cycle was relatively short. The scalper's business was slightly dull.
But this year, the market conditions have changed significantly. Blue Whale Technology reporters interviewed a number of scalpers and channel dealers and learned that
as early as the night after the iPhone 18 series launch conference, multiple scalper communities began to browse the screen to receive goods, among which the interest in inquiry for iPhone Duo was significantly higher than the same period in previous years.
A scalper revealed to a reporter from Blue Whale Technology that the number of inquiries before the launch this year has at least doubled compared to previous years:
"In previous years, the price was increased by two to three hundred, but the price fell back after a few days; before it went on sale this year, people have already asked if they can lock orders in advance."
This popularity is also confirmed by platform data.
Dewu APP data shows that the number of people who have made reservations to purchase iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max has exceeded 500,000; the iPhone Duo, priced at 15,999 yuan, has been priced at 59,999 yuan on the Dewu platform.
Picture source: Dewu App
There are two main core driving factors behind the sudden heating up of the scalper market:
First, the price difference is getting wider and wider, and the space for cross-regional arbitrage has been significantly widened. Second, there is a structural gap on the supply side, and the scarcity of first-office products is sharply amplified.
Take the iPhone 18 Pro as an example. The 256GB version is priced at 9,999 yuan in China, and the Hong Kong version is about 8,985 yuan, with a price difference of more than 1,000 yuan; the larger the capacity, the more exaggerated the price difference. The 2TB version is priced at 20,499 yuan in China, while the Hong Kong version is priced at about 18,000 yuan, a difference of nearly 2,500 yuan. The price difference of Pro Max is even more obvious. The Hong Kong version of the 2TB version is about 18,699 yuan, while the National Bank version is 21,499 yuan, a difference of 2,800 yuan.
The price difference directly stimulates cross-regional arbitrage. A scalper told Blue Whale Technology reporter:
"Currently we plan to go to Hong Kong to get a large amount of goods and then sell them in the mainland. Even if we increase the price by a few hundred yuan, it will still be cheaper than buying in the mainland."
This means that even if the price of the Hong Kong version is increased by scalpers, it may still be lower than that of the National Bank, and the goods can be obtained earlier. The larger the price difference, the more stable the arbitrage, and scalpers will naturally be more willing to exit the market.Since there is no iPhone 18 standard version this year, the demand for new phones is more concentrated on the iPhone 18 Pro series; and the real scarcity is the folding screen iPhone Duo.
Tianfeng International analyst Ming-Chi Kuo previously predicted that Apple’s foldable screen iPhone Duo assembly shipments in the third quarter of 2026 will be approximately 500,000 to 1 million units. He pointed out in July that the waiting time after pre-orders are opened may quickly lengthen to 4 to 6 weeks or even longer, and the second-hand market premium may reach 50% to 100% of the official selling price. For comparison, during the same period, the iPhone 18 Pro series shipped between 20 million and 22 million units in a single quarter, while the supply of iPhone Duo was less than one-tenth of that.
The root cause of such tight supply lies in the process challenges of folding screens. According to supply chain news,
the mass production yield rate of iPhone Duo is only 65%, with daily output of only a few hundred units, and mass production is ramping up slowly. The complexity of hinge assembly, flexible screen lamination and other links determines that the initial supply cannot be ramped up quickly.
“With less goods and more people, prices will naturally go up. What scalpers do is the difference in information and speed.”
This sentence from Li Wei (pseudonym), a channel dealer in the mobile phone industry, accurately summarizes this market logic. The owner of a digital store in Shenzhen announced before the press conference that he has prepared over one million yuan to receive the goods, and the premium in the initial launch stage is estimated to be 3,000 to 5,000 yuan. The reserve funds of some scalper teams even reach the 2 million level.Snatching on behalf of others, offline "joints" and stocking up for resale
Currently, scalpers have formed three relatively mature trading paths around Apple's new phones: purchasing on behalf of others, offline "joints" and stocking up for resale.
The first one is "robbing on behalf of others". Several second-hand platform sellers told Blue Whale Technology reporters that buyers only need to provide their name, last four digits of their ID number, and mobile phone number, and sellers can complete reservations through official channels through technical means. After grabbing the product, the consumer will bring his or her ID card to the directly operated store to pick it up, and the seller will not touch the physical object throughout the process. Blue Whale Technology reporter saw from a second-hand platform that the deposit for iPhone Duo has been raised to about 800 yuan, and it is marked "non-refundable".
The second item is offline "joint" transactions. A certain merchant cited the first sales day of the iPhone 17 last year as an example. Outside the Apple Direct Store in Guangzhou Tianhuan Plaza, they recycled the new phones at a price increase of 500 to 800 yuan and resold them at prices ranging from 700 to 2,000 yuan.
A consumer also recalled to a Blue Whale Technology reporter that as soon as the iPhone 17 was picked up from the store last year, he was stopped by a scalper and asked about the price: "Can't you get it out by adding 600?" The transaction was completed in cash. Someone loaded a large stack of cash in a travel bag to count the money on the spot, but was quickly driven away by the security guard.
Compared with "grabbing on behalf of others", this model occurs at the pick-up site, with one hand paying and the other hand delivering the goods. However, cash transactions and on-site gatherings are more likely to cause order problems.
The third one is to stock up and resell. Some scalpers do not rely on agents or on-site recycling. Instead, they hoard new phones in advance through dealers, channels, or organize multiple people to place orders in batches, and then sell them at a higher price after they are released. Since official channels generally have purchase restrictions and implement a real-name system, they often receive goods separately and in different places, and then concentrate on second-hand platforms or offline channels to release the goods.
Popular models, rare colors and large-capacity versions have more room for price increases, and some sellers require full payment or a deposit to lock in the goods.
Among the three paths, the risk of "robbing on behalf of others" is particularly prominent. The first is personal information security risk. Buyers are required to provide sensitive information such as Apple ID, mobile phone number, ID number, and pick-up city. Jiang Han, a senior researcher at Pangu Think Tank, pointed out that
This means that consumers transfer their personal real-name information, delivery addresses and even payment permissions to others, "which can easily be used by illegal companies for money laundering or fraud. Abnormally high-frequency remote logins may also trigger risk control and account bans."
Secondly, there are financial security risks. Most agency grab transactions lack platform guarantees, and consumers pay deposits or full payments in advance. Once the merchant runs away or falsely locks the order, it is extremely difficult to safeguard their rights.From a legal perspective, this type of service is also untenable. In an interview with a reporter from Blue Whale Technology, a lawyer from a law firm pointed out that
the service of taking orders in batches on second-hand platforms, charging service fees of more than 200 yuan, and claiming a high success rate for new Apple phone auctions is essentially a scalper industry chain and is not a compliance business.
However, the popularity of scalpers has not completely translated into the mass market’s willingness to buy at high prices. The Dewu App has currently launched a spot lottery event for the original price of iPhone Duo. After winning the lottery, users can purchase it at the official launch price. So far, more than 54,000 users have participated in the original price purchase lottery.
At the same time, many consumers on social platforms expressed hesitation about the weight and price of iPhone Duo.
The iPhone Duo weighs 254 grams, and the iPhone 18 Pro Max weighs 249 grams, and is ridiculed by netizens as a "half-pound machine"; the starting price of the 256GB version is 15,999 yuan, so "Duo" is pronounced as "chop".
Luo Yonghao made many complaints after the press conference, saying that the shape of the folding screen, the under-screen camera, and the hinge design were all "copied."
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