In 2023, apart from AI, the most popular investment track is GLP-1. This new type of weight-loss drug is so popular in the market that even luxury handbags pale in comparison. LVMH Group's position as the European stock market's largest market value was given to weight loss drug developer Novo Nordisk at the beginning of the month.
Evan David Seigerman, an analyst at Bank of Montreal in Canada, believes that the global market size of new weight loss drugs is expected to reach US$100 billion in 2035, and in the United States alone, revenue from these drugs may reach US$70 billion.
In addition to Novo Nordisk, another major GLP-1 pharmaceutical company Eli Lilly has performed equally well this year. With a cumulative increase of more than 50%, it is the best-performing pharmaceutical stock among the S&P 500 constituent stocks this year.
Seigerman believes Eli Lilly is most likely to dominate the U.S. market in the 2030s.
Eli Lilly's obesity version of Mounjaro could win FDA approval by the end of the year, becoming the dominant weight-loss treatment in the U.S. market this decade.
Seigerman wrote:
Thanks to a combination of proactive policymaking, progressive regulation, and cultural attitudes, the United States is moving toward a future where obesity diagnosis and treatment is universally available. This transformation is built on data-driven insights and a vision to effectively address obesity.
A recent study of Novo Nordisk's Wegovy also showed that in addition to weight loss, the drug can reduce the risk of heart attacks and strokes, which is expected to further expand Wegovy's audience.
Morgan Stanley, another major Wall Street bank, is also optimistic about the weight-loss drug market. In August, analysts at the bank predicted that the global obesity market will reach US$77 billion in 2030, higher than the bank's previous estimate of US$54 billion.