According to a research report shared today by supply chain analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, Apple plans to release new MacBooks and iPads using 3nm chips in 2024, but demand for these devices may be "lower than expected" due to "lack of growth momentum."
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Ming-Chi Kuo explained in a blog post on Medium:
Apple’s 3nm demand in 2024 will be lower than expected. In 2023, Apple's MacBook and iPad shipments dropped significantly by about 30% and 22%, to 17 million units and 48 million units respectively. The sharp decline is due to the end of work-from-home (WFH) demand and the reduced appeal of new specifications (Apple Silicon and Mini-LED) to users. Looking forward to 2024, Apple's 3nm demand will be negatively affected due to the lack of growth momentum in MacBook and iPad.
He believes Apple will no longer have the growth catalysts it has in years past, such as increased work-from-home demand driven by the pandemic, or the novelty of Apple Silicon motivating many customers to upgrade from Intel-based Macs. However, given that Mac and iPad sales have already declined significantly in 2023, Apple will have a more favorable year-over-year sales comparison in at least 2024.
It is worth noting that the next generation iPad Pro models are expected to use OLED displays, which may become another growth driver for the product line.
Ming-Chi Kuo recently stated that he does not expect Apple to release any new MacBooks or iPads between now and the end of 2023, although recent rumors suggest that Apple may still launch a new iPad mini this year. If analysts' predictions are accurate, Apple may wait until 2024 to release the M3 chip, which may result in Apple's mediocre performance this year.