The "miracle weight loss drug" craze has swept the world. Novo Nordisk raised its full-year revenue growth to 32%-38% and raised its pre-tax profit (EBIT) growth forecast to 40-46%. Analysts expected a growth of 37.5%. Thanks to the "amazing" effect of the weight loss miracle drug, Novo Nordisk's operating income and attributable net profit increased by 30% in the first half of 2023. Currently, with the frequent good news about the follow-up clinical trials of semaglutide, Novo Nordisk has begun to shake up "all fields", and continues to improve its performance guidance due to high sales growth.
On Friday, October 13, Novo Nordisk raised its full-year revenue growth forecast from 27-33% to 32%-38%, and raised its pre-tax profit (EBIT) growth forecast to 40-46% from the previous 31-37%. Analysts expected a growth of 37.5%.
Novo Nordisk's performance in the first half of this year shows that Novo Nordisk's revenue in 23H1 increased by 29% year-on-year to 107.7 billion Danish kroner; operating profit increased by 30% year-on-year to 48.9 billion Danish kroner.
After the news was released, Novo Nordisk ADR (NVO) once rose by more than 3.8%, reaching an all-time high of 104. U.S. dollar, this has also enabled Novo Nordisk to achieve four consecutive gains, with a cumulative increase of 13%, and a market value of approximately US$460 billion, surpassing luxury goods giant LVMH by US$100 billion. The latter has completely erased its gains since 2023 due to the slowdown in sales growth shown in this week's financial report. The current market value is approximately US$355 billion.
Is Novo Nordisk a "panacea"?
On October 10, Novo Nordisk announced that it had prematurely terminated the FLOW study of semaglutide (overseas trade name: Ozempic, Chinese trade name: Novota) based on interim analysis results.
According to a press release from Novo Nordisk, the FLOW study is aimed at patients with type 2 diabetes and chronic kidney disease (CKD). It aims to evaluate the renal outcomes and cardiovascular death outcomes of semaglutide 1.0 mg injection compared with placebo in preventing the progression of kidney damage and risk of kidney disease. The decision to terminate the trial early was based on the recommendation of an independent Data Monitoring Committee (DMC), which concluded that the results from the interim analysis met pre-specified specific efficacy criteria.
Semaglutide is the main active ingredient in the antidiabetic drug Ozempic (approved for marketing in the United States in 2017) and the weight loss drug Wegovy (approved for marketing in the United States in 2021) developed by Novo Nordisk. It is a GLP-1 receptor agonist (GLP-1RA). GLP-1 is an incretin that promotes insulin secretion in a "glucose concentration-dependent" manner, inhibits glucagon secretion, lowers blood sugar, and delays gastric emptying, thereby suppressing appetite.
Since this year, semaglutide has been called the "miracle drug for weight loss" due to its amazing effect on weight loss. Recently, JPMorgan Chase has increased its market expectations for GLP-1RA, predicting that by 2030, GLP-1RA drug sales will exceed US$100 billion. At the same time, semaglutide also shows potential in a variety of other disease areas.
Before the renal outcome trial was terminated prematurely, semaglutide had demonstrated efficacy beyond blood sugar lowering and weight loss in multiple studies, and was on the road to actively exploring new indications.
The market is still looking forward to the exploration results of semaglutide in NASH, Alzheimer's disease, peripheral arterial disease and other fields. With the outstanding performance of semaglutide, Novo Nordisk has also become a pharmaceutical leader with a market value of US$400 billion.
Be concerned about side effects and abuse risks
Under the spotlight of "miracle drugs", the risk of side effects of drugs and the risk of abuse during drug use also deserve attention.
On September 22, the FDA official website updated the drug insert information and believed that semaglutide may have a new potential side effect-intestinal obstruction.
On October 5, a study published in the Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA) showed that use of GLP-1 drugs such as semaglutide increases the risk of gastric paralysis (also known as "gastroparesis") by nearly 4 times, the risk of pancreatitis by 9 times, and the risk of intestinal obstruction by 4 times.
In May of this year, the FDA said it had received reports of adverse reactions to compound semaglutide. The combination of Ozempic and Wegovy that appears on the U.S. market may not contain the same ingredients as the prescription drugs, and the FDA has questioned its safety and effectiveness.
On Oct. 10, the FDA sent warning letters to two websites saying it had observed them introducing unapproved and mislabeled versions of Novo Nordisk's Ozempic, Rybelsus and Wegovy and Eli Lilly's Mounjaro into interstate commerce. The warning letter arrives as Novo Nordisk plans to once again sue a Florida compounding pharmacy it says is illegally manufacturing compounded versions of its blockbuster weight loss and diabetes drugs.