According to news on October 16, nearly 50 years after its birth, GPS is facing the possibility of losing the "gold standard" of global positioning services as the system gradually ages and China, Russia and the European Union have developed similar services. The U.S. military, which manages GPS, plans to upgrade the system with more modern satellites to provide more precise coordinates. But the new generation of civilian GPS services is not expected to be put into use for several years.
Academics and U.S. officials argue that delays in upgrades do not mean GPS is failing. But they also acknowledge that more modern satellite positioning systems in other countries could have an impact on global commerce.
GPS provides free and practical tools for ordinary people to use, creating the positioning, navigation and timing industry. The service was originally developed for the U.S. military and has since become an essential tool for real-time positioning of smartphones, ships and smart devices.
In 1973, the U.S. Pentagon authorized the GPS project for the first time. In 1978, the U.S. Air Force launched its first satellite, which became fully operational in 1995. The U.S. Space Force currently takes over the management of GPS launches.
Civilian users are more dependent on GPS than system planners originally envisioned. For example, Uber drivers use smartphones’ GPS data to find and schedule passengers, and power companies use the GPS network’s precise atomic clocks to detect power transmission failures.
Other countries are also developing satellite systems similar to GPS. Russia's Glonass system and the European Union's Galileo system provide global positioning services, while Japanese and Indian satellites mainly broadcast data to their surrounding areas.
China's Beidou satellite navigation system has developed rapidly since the launch of two satellites in 2000. Global coverage was achieved in 2020, with 46 satellites, exceeding the 31 satellites of the U.S. GPS system.
The Beidou satellite navigation system is supported by at least 30 high-precision monitoring stations, which can determine positioning to within a few centimeters and provide basic two-way communication capabilities.
Last year, Apple launched a new feature in the iPhone 14 series to call emergency personnel via satellite. Just a few days ago, Huawei mobile phones also released similar functions. The realization of this function benefits from the infrastructure of the Beidou satellite navigation system.
Sarah Sewall, executive vice president of technology investment company In-Q-Tel, said that GPS was once considered to have advantages over other global satellite systems, but this is no longer clear. "The dominance of GPS has been eroded."
GPS systems broadcast precise time measurements via satellites, and devices use timestamps from multiple satellites to determine location.
Satellite navigation systems in China, Europe and Russia allow free use of civilian signals and do not bring direct profit. John Betz, an emeritus fellow at Miter, a U.S.-funded nonprofit research institute that has contributed to efforts to modernize GPS, said it was difficult to see direct benefits yet, other than a boost to countries' domestic aerospace industries.
But the new system has more advanced features. In the future, manufacturers of smartphones, cars and industrial equipment may choose to rely on signals from the Beidou satellite navigation system rather than GPS.
"There's always some inertia in modernizing GPS," Bates said. "It's not starting from a blank slate." For example, although the United States is adding new channels to GPS, it still plans to continue to use GPS's original radio frequencies to prevent the billions of devices that rely on GPS from becoming obsolete.
The U.S. Space Force said in a statement that the GPS system will continue to set the gold standard in satellite positioning and navigation. A spokeswoman said: "While other countries may improve on equivalent performance including accuracy and availability, GPS remains the clear leader in terms of completeness and is the only system used by the international aviation community."
The U.S. military has long planned to improve its GPS system with a fleet of modern, upgradeable satellites. These satellites can provide more precise coordinates with less interference. The upgraded satellite broadcasts data to civilian users on a new frequency called L5.
After a series of delays, there are now 17 satellites equipped with L5 frequencies in orbit, but not the 24 satellites needed to operate a reliable system. Some of the new satellites have already been built and are waiting to be launched in warehouses in Colorado.
The U.S. Space Force said it will continue to expand systems carrying new frequencies and put them into full use in 2027. Another batch of satellites is planned to be put into use in the 2030s. The two satellite upgrade projects are expected to cost a total of more than $15 billion.
Retired Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery of the U.S. military expressed concern about the slow upgrade of the GPS system, pointing out that the civilian industry that relies on GPS is a blind spot. "This system is critical to our infrastructure and we have very little resiliency. In fact, the U.S. GPS system is beginning to decline," Montgomery said, urging the U.S. Space Force to speed up future satellite launches.
Lockheed Martin has built four new satellites, one of which is scheduled to launch in mid-2024. Juli Best, director of program management, said the company has built a new set of capabilities into the satellites and streamlined production processes to help quickly enhance and deliver GPS systems. The company is ready for the planned GPS launch of the U.S. Space Force.
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