Climate researchers say the rapid expansion of renewable energy means global emissions could peak as early as this year. A surge in new wind and solar capacity could outpace growth in energy demand for the first time, prompting a decline in fossil fuel consumption, Climate Analytics said in a report released on Wednesday. The institute said that if this trend continues, there will be a 70% chance that emissions will peak this year.
According to the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, curbing the increase in greenhouse gases by the end of 2025 is key to keeping global temperatures within +1.5 degrees Celsius of pre-industrial levels and avoiding the worst impacts of climate change. Although CarbonBrief's analysis last month also said emissions may peak in 2023, the International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts a peak in 2025, and the U.S. Energy Information Administration predicts emissions will increase by 15% by 2050 compared with last year.
Neil Grant, a climate and energy analyst at ClimateAnalytics, said these more conservative forecasts ignore recent advances in clean technology manufacturing, which are driving the adoption of clean energy faster than anyone imagined. That led analysts to quickly revise their forecasts.