Every month brings new signs that China is catching up with the United States in artificial intelligence development. At the end of 2024, Chinese startup DeepSeek decisively proved that Silicon Valley does not have a monopoly on cutting-edge models. Its large-scale language AI model is proven to be able to achieve equivalent performance using far fewer chips than the US. Following DeepSeek, models released by Alibaba, ByteDance, Moonshot AI and other Chinese laboratories have also demonstrated new capabilities. Even China’s sanctioned and troubled chip industry has seen a surge in AI chip production.
In Silicon Valley, more and more start-up founders and venture capitalists are becoming aware of China's broader achievements. They are increasingly impressed by China's ability to master complex manufacturing products such as electric vehicles at scale, as well as its ability to make huge investments in the power sector.
Over the past 10 months, there has been unease over Trump administration policies, including restrictions on employer-sponsored H-1B visas widely used by the tech industry.
By almost every metric, the United States remains the global leader in artificial intelligence. It has the most important asset: computing power, represented by the most advanced artificial intelligence chips. But computing power is not the only element of artificial intelligence. China also enjoys other structural advantages in competition. Therefore, we might as well think about it: Is it possible for China to surpass the United States in the field of artificial intelligence?
Data centers require large amounts of power. In this regard, China has a huge advantage over the United States. Ember Energy calculates that China's installed solar capacity in the first half of 2025 was 256 GW, 12 times the U.S.'s 21 GW. China has 32 nuclear reactors under construction, while the United States has none.
Meanwhile, President Donald Trump has actively opposed the deployment of solar and wind energy, denouncing the technologies as the “hoax of the century” and directing his administration to cancel offshore wind development.
In the long term, the United States may face power problems caused by high power consumption in data centers. China, on the other hand, has been committed to ensuring power supply for heavy industry and therefore faces little such risk.
Artificial intelligence is created by a group of highly skilled and valuable human technical talents. According to reports, in order to improve Meta's strength, Mark Zuckerberg offered each engineer a salary worth hundreds of millions of dollars. Many of the open recruiters for Meta Artificial Intelligence Lab graduated from Chinese universities, including Tsinghua University, Peking University, and Zhejiang University.
These Chinese engineers tend to be highly mobile, sometimes moving between labs in Silicon Valley and sometimes returning home because of their interest in China or their disillusionment with the United States. In this regard, Trump’s policies threaten to undermine competition. The intensity of the xenophobic sentiment of the "Rebuild Greatness" movement may prompt more Chinese engineers to bring their skills back to China.
Artificial intelligence is not a simple “race”. What matters is not just creating the technology, but how each country utilizes it. Silicon Valley has always been obsessed with superintelligence, as if it could build God in a box. Beijing is less interested in seeing AI as a supernatural target and more as a technology to be exploited—Chinese academics and policymakers have been talking about AI as a practical tool to enhance existing industries.
Artificial intelligence will help both countries deepen their respective specializations. Think of it this way: The United States is doing better in services such as consulting and litigation; with the help of artificial intelligence, it may be able to generate more litigation. China has better manufacturing training data and may be more sophisticated in the production of electronic products, drones and ammunition.
China's main obstacle is a lack of computing power. But Trump may still be able to provide some help here. If the United States relaxes restrictions, China's artificial intelligence development prospects will undoubtedly be brighter. Not only would it close the gap in AI training, it would also provide its tech talent with greater computing power and a stronger manufacturing base.