Now that memory chips have entered the strongest super bull market in history, with prices continuing to soar and production capacity in short supply, the smartphone industry will face a huge impact.TrendForce’s latest report points out that since the second half of 2025, the prices of DRAM and NAND flash memory have increased significantly, which has forced many mobile phone brands to increase the selling prices of new phones.
Although mainstream manufacturers have not yet significantly reduced their production plans for the first quarter of 2026, TrendForce predicts that due to the transmission effect of price increases, the pace of brand shipments will begin to slow down significantly in the second quarter.
Some manufacturers have begun to evaluate and lower their full-year production targets. Especially after the price increase of high-end models due to surge in storage costs, market acceptance has been lower than expected.
Although there is generally a conservative attitude towards the market prospects in 2026, various brands still adopt the strategy of "prioritizing order locking and ensuring supply first" in memory procurement, and do not simultaneously reduce orders to avoid the risk of higher costs or supply interruption in the future.
However, due to the combination of factors such as the intensive sprint shipments at the end of 2025, the decline of China's national subsidy policy, and the price increase of new machines, channel finished product inventory is gradually accumulating.
If the sales rate at the retail end cannot be improved, some brands may curb subsequent production schedules in advance by the end of the first quarter of 2026.
Overall, the first half of 2026 will become a key window for brands to adjust their product structure and pricing strategies.
Taking into account the inventory digestion cycle and the time required for production line switching, major production plan revisions will be concentrated in the second to third quarters.
Under the influence of multiple factors such as the overall economic environment being weak, consumer behavior becoming more conservative, and memory prices continuing to rise,TrendForce has lowered its forecast for the total number of smartphones produced in 2026. Compared with the version released in November 2025, the annual decrease has expanded from 2% to 7%.