[China Merchants Securities: The weight of technology supported by performance is expected to usher in a compensatory increase, and the subsequent market is expected to usher in a turning point] On September 20th, China Merchants Securities believes that this week’s macro boots will be implemented intensively, and the market will rebound. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25bp as scheduled and expressed a hawkish stance. The dot plot implies that there will be one more interest rate hike this year, but it is a negative impact. There is a lack of more important macro variables in the short term. The market is gradually desensitized to macro and returns to industrial pricing; Domestic economic data in August It shows the characteristics of "marginal recovery in production, weak total demand, and differentiation of old and new driving forces". The weak total volume has been fully priced in, and the structural boom is still concentrated in technology and exports. The US-Iran deadlock continues, but diplomatic mediation has increased, oil prices have fallen from highs, and the margins of geopolitical disturbances have been blunted. As macro-suppression is gradually lifted, the technology sector, which has been fully digested in the early stage, is seeing a return of funds. This week, TMT turnover accounted for 43% of the total market. The weight of technology supported by performance is expected to make up for the increase, and the subsequent market is expected to usher in a change of market nodes. It is recommended to pay attention to the AI ​​computing power chain, CPO industry chain, price increases of resource products and the direction of the export chain in the growth of technology.