B · Normal
[CITIC Securities: It is recommended to actively seize the last offensive window during the year. In the technology field, it is recommended to focus on two types of directions] September 20th, CITIC Securities believes that in the latter part of the industrial super cycle, after institutional tickets peak, there is usually a round of new highs for non-institutional tickets. The current AI narrative, the position of the profit cycle and the global monetary environment are likely to restrict institutional votes: 1) AI computing power investment has not slowed down, but the market’s expectations for the commercialization space of cutting-edge model factories are adjusting; 2) All-A non-financial profits may continue to rise quarter-on-quarter in 2026Q3, but the peak year-on-year growth rate may appear in the fourth quarter of this year; 3) The Federal Reserve has shown a tough stance to control inflation, which will create a tight macro liquidity atmosphere at least during the year. If these factors are viewed from an institutional perspective and thinking, they will undoubtedly restrict the height of the market. However, from the perspective of short-term sentiment and chip cycle, coupled with the catalysis of the three quarterly reports, the market has the soil for active funds to attack new technologies and new themes. We recommend actively seizing the last offensive window of the year.
In terms of allocation, considering the high interest rate environment, during the last wave of attack windows during the year, the market differentiation may expand again and AI will regain its dominance. In the technology field, it is recommended to focus on two types of directions: first, new optical communication technologies, PCBs, advanced packaging, etc. that benefit from increased manufacturing complexity; second, wafer manufacturing, gas turbines, etc., which have clear volume growth logic. Among them, non-institutional heavyweight stocks may have greater upward flexibility, and North American chains may be relatively dominant in the future; non-tech fields continue to focus on energy and leading brokerage firms with overseas potential.
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