[Goldman Sachs: It is difficult for U.S. bond forward interest rates to remain above 5% for a long time, and the end point of the Fed's interest rate hikes is key] On November 3, a Goldman Sachs research report pointed out that the recent nominal and real yields on U.S. long-term Treasury bonds have risen to highs in more than 20 years. The most direct driving factor is not the fiscal deficit, AI investment or energy shock itself, but the Fed's restart of interest rate hikes has changed the market's judgment on future interest rate levels. Goldman Sachs believes that unless the market expects that policy rates will rise to higher levels in this round, it is unusual for long-term forward rates to continue to significantly exceed this historical high. The bank's baseline forecast is that the current round of policy interest rates will peak at 4% to 4.25%. Even if interest rates are raised one or two more times, long-term forward interest rates above 5% will be difficult to become a stable pricing center.