B[Changguang Huaxin: Morgan Stanley related reports informal regulations domestic 800G/1.6T optical chips are still in extreme short supply in the short term] "Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily" reported on the 8th, regarding the "FCC 65%" related clauses mentioned in Morgan Stanley's report, and the impact that the company's stock price may have today, a person from Changguang Huaxin Securities Department told the "Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily" reporter that the report is a policy scenario deduction report, not an officially implemented regulation or clause, but just "one family's words." Secondly, the optical module and its materials involved in the report are 3.2T, but the domestic 3.2T industry is currently in its infancy, and it is not expected to be large-scale until 2028-2029. The main products shipped this year and next are still 800G/1.6T. Products with these two speeds are still in extremely short supply, and domestic optical chips will still grow rapidly in the short term.
He believes that the global AI industry chain is deeply interactive. Even if the global geopolitical game will have an impact, industries are not "decoupled if they want to". Finally, he said that domestic manufacturers will also make arrangements for relevant situations in advance, such as building factories overseas. (Kechuangban Daily reporter Huang Xiumei) B[CITIC Securities: Optical module temperature control is being upgraded from a "supporting link" to a "performance-determining link"] On September 30, CITIC Securities pointed out that with the large-scale ramp-up of 800G optical modules and 1.6T entering the first year of mass production, single module power consumption and requirements for temperature control accuracy are significantly increasing, and optical module temperature control is being upgraded from a "supporting link" to a "performance-determining link." Optical module temperature control forms a three-layer system of chip-level precise temperature control (Micro-TEC + ceramic substrate heat sink), interface thermal conductivity (TIM gel/graphene gasket), and module-level heat distribution (VC soaking plate/cold plate). The value of single-module temperature control increases systematically with speed iterations; with the superposition of CPO/NPO architecture, optical engines and switching chips dissipate heat in the same area, and the industry is experiencing both volume and price increases. In terms of competition, core links such as TEC and ceramic substrates have been dominated by Japanese manufacturers for a long time. Domestic manufacturers are accelerating breakthroughs, and there is broad room for domestic substitution. CITIC Securities recommends focusing on three main lines of segmented investment: TEC and ceramic substrates, TIM and graphene thermal conductive materials, VC vapor chambers and liquid cooling structural parts. B[CICC: Optical communications industry will be highly prosperous in 2027 with certainty to increase] On September 16, CICC Research reported that the popularity of the 27th Optical Expo has increased compared with previous years, with more than 4,000 companies participating in the exhibition, and the overall number of visitors was nearly 190,000, a year-on-year increase of 32%. "Locking orders" and "locking materials" have become keywords for exhibition research, and the certainty of demand in 2027 will further increase. Based on exhibition research, the order schedule of some high-speed optical chip companies has been extended to 2028 and beyond, and the visibility of optical module orders covers 2027 and beyond; leading optical module manufacturers are actively targeting core materials such as DSP, mSAP PCB, and high-speed optical chips. It is expected that the difference in subsequent delivery will depend more on key material security, yield and customer certification, among which advanced process DSP may become the most scarce link. It is expected that by 2028, after standards and engineering solutions gradually converge and yields increase, NPO is expected to accelerate volume expansion, and CPO may gradually enter Scale-up; OCS will move from a few cloud vendors for self-use to more AI clusters, driving the sinking of 2.4T light coherent applications; 400G per lane promotes device upgrades, and thin film lithium niobate is expected to accelerate its entry into customer verification and application windows. B[Sripu: A full range of optical communication analog chip solutions are unveiled, and relevant solutions have completed customer verification] September 10th, according to the official WeChat account of Sirip, from September 9th to 11th, Sirip participated in the 27th China International Optoelectronics Expo (CIOE China Optical Expo) to showcase innovative solutions for analog and digital-analog hybrid chips for the field of optical communications. The exhibits cover 800G/1.6T pluggable high-speed optical module solutions (adapted to silicon photonics and EML dual technology routes), CPO/NPO co-packaged optics and ELSFP external light source mass production supporting solutions, OCS all-optical switching complete set of control solutions, and coherent optical modules and EDFA optical amplification full-link solutions. Among them, in view of the development direction of next-generation high-density optoelectronic integration technology, two complete solutions of Sirip CPO/NPO co-packaged optics and ELSFP external light source have completed customer verification, effectively helping customers shorten the product development cycle and accelerate product introduction to the market. A[Goldman Sachs significantly raises its optical module market forecast: the scale in 2028 may be nearly US$150 billion] On September 7, Goldman Sachs significantly raised its industry forecast in the latest global optical module report. It is expected that the global optical module market will reach approximately US$67.7 billion, US$131.4 billion, and US$148.5 billion respectively from 2026 to 2028, which is an increase of 33%, 81%, and 115% from the previous forecast. Goldman Sachs believes that this round of upward revision is not simply due to the increase in the number of AI servers. More importantly, the AI server architecture continues to migrate to high-speed networks, coupled with the increase in the number of optical modules required for a single GPU or ASIC chip, driving the rapid increase in demand for 800G, 1.6T and even 3.2T.
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