Abstract:
Tesla released a new generation of Roadster sports car in Texas on Thursday night local time, performing stunning "flying flips" and other difficult maneuvers, and demonstrating its flight capabilities. However, many analysts believe that this model is unlikely to bring significant revenue to Tesla in the short term.
Before the market opened on Friday, Tesla's stock price rose by more than 5%, driven by market enthusiasm caused by the launch event. However, it fell by nearly 3% during the session.
Michael Tyndall, senior global auto industry analyst at HSBC, commented that this debut is more of a demonstration of engineering prowess than a proof of profitability. Consumers will still have to wait for some time before getting new cars.
Rajat Gupta, an analyst at JP Morgan who gave Tesla a "neutral" rating, said that the new Roadster shows the deep collaboration between Tesla and SpaceX, but the mass production of the model is still many years later than originally planned. "The current target time for mass production is 2028, and when Tesla first released this car in 2017, it announced plans to deliver it in 2020."
Quilter Cheviot analyst Mamta Valechha called the display "an engineering moment big enough to grab headlines" and believed its purpose was to "create buzz for the brand."
Rico Luman, senior economist at ING, called the press conference "a public relations show that highlights Tesla's image as an innovative company and thereby enhances brand value." He added that car consumption itself is closely related to emotion and lifestyle, so such a display can really leave a deep impression on people.
Morningstar analyst Seth Goldstein previously said in a report: "Tesla currently does not have a flagship model that can demonstrate the strength of the brand, nor does it have a high-performance luxury car specifically designed to showcase the automaker's most advanced engineering and technological capabilities. Roadster will become Tesla's new brand flagship model."
Gene Munster, managing partner of Deepwater Asset Management, commented on the social platform
Valechha pointed out that even Musk himself had previously downplayed the possible financial impact of the Roadster. She said: "The commercial value of this car is likely to be mainly reflected in strengthening Tesla's innovative image rather than creating considerable profits."
Musk said the Roadster is expected to begin production in 2028. Tesla has opened reservations, but the flight-capable Rocket version is only available to invited customers. The company has not yet announced the final selling price.
Tesla released the Roadster as early as 2017. A year later, Musk said that thrusters might give the car the ability to fly. Since then, the model's launch has been repeatedly delayed, with delivery initially promised in 2020.
Valechha concluded: "Tesla still faces high credibility risks in delivering on its promises and executing its plans."
Can flying cars reach a broader market?
Roadster's flight capabilities have not yet been approved for use on public roads, adding another obstacle to the large-scale promotion of related technologies. In addition, flying cars themselves can be quite expensive to manufacture.
Luman said the Roadster was designed as a sports car for a niche market. But he believes: "In the foreseeable future, it is not realistic for flying cars to be used on a large scale, because they also need to comply with the airspace rules applicable to aircraft, and they also need to obtain aircraft certification from the European Aviation Safety Agency."
European Aviation Safety Agency stated that whether the Roadster is subject to aviation regulations depends on its design, function and intended operation. The agency also said it would not comment on "specific certification applications or related activities involving individual manufacturers."
However, the European Aviation Safety Agency pointed out: "Any means of transportation planned to operate as an aircraft must meet applicable aviation safety requirements." Relevant requirements may also include the need for drivers to have appropriate pilot qualifications.
Luman added that in addition to complex regulatory requirements, existing airspace itself is already quite congested, especially with increasing drone activity. "For safety reasons, regulators are unlikely to allow large numbers of unregulated flying cars to operate in the sky."
Valechha also believes that the scope of application of this technology has obvious limitations. "Over time, some of the technology may be gradually applied to other vehicle models. However, in the foreseeable future, considering the cost, complexity and regulatory obstacles, it is unlikely that flight functions or thruster assistance technology will be economically viable in mass-produced cars."
Luman claimed that some aerospace technology may be applied to high-end cars. "Overall, flying cars could become a cheaper alternative to private jets, but that is not the case with the concept used in this car."
Tesla faces pressure to convert technology investment into profits
Like many big tech companies, Tesla continues to expand but faces increasing pressure to turn expensive technology projects into stronger profitability.
The company is investing heavily in new technology, but profit growth has failed to keep pace with sales growth.
In the second quarter, Tesla’s revenue increased by 26% year-on-year to US$28.24 billion; but net profit attributable to shareholders fell by approximately 5% to US$1.11 billion.
In the first half of this year, Tesla’s capital expenditures more than doubled year-on-year, reaching US$8.28 billion. The company expects capital expenditures to exceed $25 billion in 2026, driven by investments in artificial intelligence and manufacturing.
Investors’ valuation of Tesla has also gradually declined. At the beginning of this year, the company's stock price reached $438; as of Thursday, the stock price had fallen to around $360.
Other analysts also pointed out that Tesla's valuation is largely based on its autonomous driving vision, humanoid robot Optimus and market expectations for its merger with SpaceX.
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