Abstract:
After Apple’s new flagship smartphone iPhone 18 Pro series opened for pre-order, early market demand showed a relatively mild or even flat trend. Investment banks and supply chain analysis institutions tracked the initial shipment cycle and channel ordering in major markets and pointed out that compared to previous years when flagship models were sold out as soon as they were pre-ordered and quickly delayed the shipment schedule for several weeks, this year's iPhone 18 Pro did not set off the expected rush to buy.
Tracking data shows that in key sales regions such as the United States, Europe and Asia-Pacific, the waiting time for shipment of iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max models is significantly shorter than the same period of the previous generation products. A few hours after the reservation channel opened, the official estimated delivery time for a large number of configurations and color versions remained on the first day of sale or only postponed within one to two weeks. Some offline retail stores also had relatively sufficient self-pickup quotas on the release day. This loose trend in the delivery cycle shows that the explosive power of instant bookings of new aircraft is lower than the market’s previous optimistic expectations.
Wall Street investment banks and technology industry analysts believe that the slow start in bookings is mainly due to various factors. On the one hand, the replacement cycle of high-end smartphones has continued to lengthen in recent years, and consumers' enthusiasm for conventional hardware iterations has tended to be rational. Although the new phones have brought about incremental upgrades in terms of mobile chip computing power, image sensors, and body materials, in the absence of a breakthrough subversive experience, the motivation of old users who have held nearly two generations of models to upgrade is obviously limited. On the other hand, with the cautious mood in the macro consumption environment, some potential buyers may choose to stay on the sidelines and wait for subsequent real evaluation feedback on actual performance, heat dissipation and battery life, and the implementation of system end-side AI functions.
However, market observers also pointed out that the shortening of delivery cycles cannot simply be equated to a decline in actual total sales. Apple's supply chain may have adopted a more proactive pre-stocking strategy this year, increasing assembly capacity in advance to ensure sufficient first batch of spot supply. This has, to a certain extent, smoothed shipment delays caused by past supply and demand imbalances. With the official offline sales on the launch day and the traditional holiday shopping season at the end of the year, whether the overall sales momentum of the iPhone 18 Pro series will gradually pick up and strengthen, or maintain a relatively moderate growth curve, it remains to further observe the true performance of subsequent market shipments.
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