Abstract:
"GTA6" may break the series revenue record during its launch phase. Third-party predictions believe that the number of pre-orders when the game is released may reach 25 million, corresponding to approximately US$2 billion in revenue, exceeding the US$1 billion earned by "Give Him Love 5" within three days of its release.
"GTA6" is scheduled to be launched on PS5 and Xbox Series X|S on November 19, with the basic version priced at US$80. Sensor Tower tracking data estimates that as of October 13, the game has had approximately 6.08 million pre-orders and revenue of approximately US$594 million, of which PS5 accounted for 74% and Xbox Series X|S accounted for 26%. Karl Kontus of the agency predicts that pre-orders may increase to 25 million copies at launch, but this number is only a third-party forecast.
Take-Two has not announced actual pre-order figures. Strauss Zelnick, the person in charge, only stated that the pre-order performance significantly exceeded the international market expectations. He also emphasized that pre-order orders can still be cancelled. Directly disclosing the original numbers may mislead investors.
As a reference, the revenue of "Grand Theft Auto 5" reached US$800 million within 24 hours of its release, and reached US$1 billion within three days. Its cumulative sales have now exceeded 230 million copies. "Red Dead Redemption 2" earned US$725 million in its first weekend, with cumulative sales exceeding 87 million copies; "Fallout 4" shipped 12 million copies on its first day, with sales exceeding US$750 million.
GameSpot reports:
After years of development and perhaps more publicity than any other game, GTA 6 will be available on PS5 and Xbox Series X|S on November 19th. Predicting that it would be a huge commercial success was perhaps one of the safest predictions anyone could make.
But how big will the launch of this game be? If GTA6 really meets expectations, what records can it break?
Record
The last GTA game, 2013's Give Him Love 5, was a huge success upon launch. It made $800 million in revenue within 24 hours of release, and exceeded the $1 billion mark within three days. Even ten years later, the game is still a sales juggernaut, with over 230 million copies sold and counting.
Rockstar's latest game "Red Dead Redemption 2" (released in 2018) grossed US$725 million in its first weekend, with cumulative sales of more than 87 million copies, ranking among the top five best-selling games in history.
In addition to Rockstar, the role-playing game "Fallout 4" launched by Bethesda in 2015 has also achieved great success, selling 12 million copies on the day of release alone, with sales exceeding $750 million.
All in all, GTA6 is expected to break the following records:
Give Him Love 5: Revenue of US$800 million in 24 hours and US$1 billion in three days
"Red Dead Redemption 2": $725 million in opening weekend box office
"Fallout 4": Revenue of $750 million on launch day
GTA6 faces a huge challenge, it needs to match or even surpass Rockstar's previous games and "Fallout 4". But if Sensor Tower’s prediction of 25 million pre-orders at launch is correct—or close to that number—then it should easily surpass the launch sales of Give Him Love 5.
Compared with previous games, one advantage of GTA6 is its higher price. The base game of GTA6 is priced at $80, while the launch prices of GTA 5 and Red Dead Redemption 2 a few years ago were $60.
Of course, taking inflation into account, $60 in 2013 is equivalent to about $85 today. But even after adjusting for inflation, if "GTA6" is as successful as everyone expects, its launch sales may be higher. And what is certain is that when Take-Two finally announces the sales data of "GTA6", they will use all means at all costs to present the data in the most perfect way.
Data so far
Since pre-orders opened in June, Rockstar and its parent company Take-Two have never officially announced any pre-order numbers or sales forecasts. Take-Two president Strauss Zelnick said it would be unwise to release pre-order figures because they could be misleading. His reasoning is that, technically, not a single copy of GTA 6 has been sold yet, since all pre-ordered games can theoretically be returned. Of course, this statement is ridiculous; Zelnick seems to be simply sticking to his usual style of never declaring success before it's successful.
Regardless, Zelnick said that pre-orders for GTA 6 "far exceeded" international expectations, but he did not specify what those expectations were or whether they "meant anything."
Zelnick said that sharing the true raw data of GTA6 pre-orders may mislead investors, so Take-Two will not do so.
Zelnick said: "I reminded everyone that we have no idea how the demand curve will change because this has never happened before. Given this, we believe that the raw data may be misleading, and the direction of this misleading is concerning to us."
On Take-Two's latest earnings call, Zelnick said of the number of pre-orders for "GTA 6": "Take-Two and the entire industry have never seen anything like this." He added: "To be clear, we have not sold any copies yet. You can cancel your pre-orders."
The budget for the first week of sale reached US$2 billion?
Market research company Sensor Tower launched a website called "GTA6 Sales Tracker", which shows GTA6 pre-order volume estimates. As of October 13, pre-orders have reached 6.08 million units, and apparently include all returned/refunded orders. The agency estimates that GTA6's revenue to date has reached $594 million, of which PS5's share accounts for 74% and Xbox Series X|S's share accounts for 26%.
Sensor Tower's Karl Kontus said in an interview that the number of pre-orders for GTA6 at launch may be around 25 million, which will be an "unprecedented pre-order result."
He said that if pre-orders reach 25 million copies, total revenue will reach about $2 billion, enough to cover the game's development budget and most of its marketing expenses. Kontus also said that he expects the majority of pre-orders for "GTA 6" to be concentrated in the last week or so before release, when the game's popularity will reach its peak. Sensor Tower pointed out that the $100 version currently accounts for a slightly higher share of pre-orders, but this is reasonable because early pre-order players are likely to be loyal fans of the game. Sensor Tower expects the number of pre-orders for the $80 and $100 versions to be roughly equal when the game is released.
The sale is just the beginning
GTA6 is currently promoted as a console-exclusive single-player experience. Although this seems to be the case now, everyone expects Rockstar to launch the next-generation GTA Online mode for GTA6 and eventually port it to the PC platform. A recent report claimed that the PC version may be released earlier than expected.
A recent report released by Jefferies Investment Company stated that as of October 16, Take-Two's stock is currently trading at about $200 per share, trading at a discount, and is expected to rise to $300 per share. The company is optimistic about Take-Two not only because "GTA 6" is expected to be a big success, but also because the next-generation "GTA Online" will become a new source of revenue, and the upcoming PC version will also start a new sales cycle.
These are not fanciful. After all, to this day, "GTA Online" still brings stable income to Take-Two through various microtransactions and GTA+ subscription services. Therefore, we have reason to believe that Rockstar will further improve "GTA Online" in "GTA6" and create more ways for players to spend time (and money) in the game world. As for the PC version, if players prefer the PC platform, then "GTA Online" will naturally prompt them to choose the PC version, and players may also become "double beneficiaries", thereby further increasing Take-Two's revenue.
Different hosting markets
Give Him Love 5 was released at the end of the life cycle of the PS3 and Xbox360 consoles, which undoubtedly created a unique market environment and greatly increased the game's sales potential. The combined installed base of these two consoles exceeds 150 million units, which means Rockstar has a huge market. As mentioned above, in this environment, the sales of Give Him Love 5 are excellent.
Rockstar originally released the game on these platforms, then ported it to PS4 and Xbox One, and then to PS5 and Xbox Series X|S in the following years, making continuous improvements in the process. While in some cases upgrades are free and players don't have to pay again, it's certain that many players have purchased the game repeatedly.
The release of GTA6 comes at a time when the console market is completely different from before. PS5 and Xbox Series PS5 has sold more than 95 million units, and Xbox Series
What about in the long run?
If "GTA6" sells more than "Give Him Love 5" at the beginning of its release, this does not mean that it will eventually catch up with "Give Him Love 5". "Give Him Love 5" has sold more than 230 million copies, thanks to the unique model mentioned above. In addition, when the game was released, the market had not yet seen the "black hole of service-based games" today, with games such as "Fortnite" and "Roblox" eating up players' time and money.
Although PS6 and Xbox's Project Helix series of consoles have been receiving much attention, there are reports that the release of these platforms may be delayed due to the complex and thorny issues mentioned above. However, no matter when the next generation of PlayStation and Xbox consoles arrive, we are almost certain that GTA6 will eventually be ported to these platforms.
As for the huge market of Switch2, GTA6 has not yet been announced to land on the Nintendo platform. However, this possibility cannot be completely ruled out, as Rockstar has reportedly conducted related tests - but this may just be a test. The president of Nintendo of America suggested that players ask Rockstar for information about the Switch 2 version of GTA 6.
Another problem faced by GTA6 is that due to the market factors mentioned above, the cycle of console generation changes is much longer than before. So while Rockstar is able to profitably port Give Him Love 5 to new platforms every few years, this may be more challenging in the future.
Despite these possible headwinds, I believe GTA Online's next-gen offering will become a true juggernaut that will eventually surpass the main game. First, I expect Rockstar to put a lot of effort into user-generated content and create a larger, richer world for GTA Online, giving players more things to do and more reasons to keep playing. In turn, this will create more profit opportunities for Rockstar and create its own metaverse. I hope Rockstar can announce the latest news about GTA Online 2.0 as soon as possible.
GTA 6 is a must-have game for many people, but for those who are still on the fence, don't yet have a console, or want a new console, spending $600 for a base PS5 or $500 for a Series S may come as a surprise.
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