Abstract:
A game that has been on sale for 13 years, with cumulative sales of nearly 235 million copies, is about to receive a sequel next week. For Wall Street, this offering carries an expectation: Can a business that has been generating revenue for many years start a new profit growth cycle? Next Thursday,
"Grand Theft Auto VI" ("Grand Theft Auto VI", hereinafter referred to as "GTA VI")
will be officially launched globally.
According to estimates from industry organization Sensor Tower
, as of November 13, pre-sales of "GTA VI" have exceeded 12 million copies
Morgan Stanley predicts that sales may reach 40 million copies by March 2027.Based on market expectations for new games, the stock price of game developer Take-Two has doubled since 2023. Wall Street predicts that the development cost of this game alone may exceed $1 billion.
(Take-Two stock price weekly chart, source: TradingView)
Take-Two CEO Strauss Zelnick revealed in a recent interview with the media: "We are usually very cautious when discussing such topics, but our expectations are already high, and
the current actual performance has far exceeded these expectations
. ”Amazing business returns lasting 13 years
The industry's attention to "GTA VI" stems from the huge success of the previous game.
In September 2013, global retail sales of "GTA V" exceeded US$800 million on the first day of release, and exceeded US$1 billion in the first three days. Take-Two said at the time that this was the fastest entertainment product, including games and movies, to reach this sales scale.
The subsequent performance can better explain the investment value of this game.
Take-Two disclosed in the preparation for its earnings conference call on November 9 this year that the cumulative sales of "GTA V" have reached nearly 235 million copies; in the quarter, the ongoing consumer spending of the "GTA" series and the average number of GTA+ monthly members both achieved double-digit percentage growth.
The game's revenue is divided into two parts: players purchase the game, and then can purchase virtual currency, additional content, etc. in online mode. Continuous updates enable a product that has completed main development to attract users to pay for many years.
Jeffrey estimated in April this year that to this day,
global players' annual spending on "GTA V" online mode is still approximately US$600 million
.Wall Street bets on multi-year earnings growth
As launch approaches, Wall Street institutions are beginning to price in earnings growth from the game.
According to statistics, JPMorgan Chase reiterated Take-Two's "overweight" rating with a target price of $310 on November 10; Jefferies maintained a "buy" rating and a target price of $300; Bank of America maintained a "buy" rating and a target price of $330, and continued to list it as a preferred stock.
Even if the performance in the latest quarter is not satisfactory, some institutions have not changed their judgment. Jefferies analyst James Heaney pointed out that the weak performance of NBA 2K dragged down quarterly net bookings, but this financial report did not change its investment logic, and the pre-sale performance of "GTA VI" still exceeded the company's initial expectations.
JPMorgan Chase raised Take-Two’s net bookings forecast for this fiscal year to US$8.3 billion
, above the company’s guidance of $8 billion to $8.2 billion. The bank’s target price of US$310 corresponds to approximately 29 times the estimated adjusted earnings per share of US$10.59 for the fiscal year ending in March 2028. The valuation has set its sights on the full fiscal year after the new work is released.UBS believes that the company's approach to maintaining full-year guidance is relatively conservative, and a large number of sales may be concentrated at the time of sale and the following weeks.
The bank expects that subsequent content updates, new platform versions and new games will drive net bookings, profits and free cash flow to new levels.Compared with initial sales volume, the long-term liquidity of the online model affects profit forecasts more.
Bank of America analysts estimate that GTA online mode may contribute 40% to 60% of Take-Two’s earnings per share for the fiscal year ending in March 2029. When the new online experience will be launched, how it will be charged, and how it will be connected to the GTA+ subscription service, will become key variables that organizations will pay attention to.
For the upcoming debut, Bank of America also gave specific observation indicators. The bank believes that sales in the first weekend will be closely watched: if it is less than 1.5 billion US dollars, it may mean that sales will not meet investors' expectations for this fiscal year. At the same time, the quality of game content and public opinion feedback will become important factors affecting market judgment in the early stages of release.
Seizing up holiday time, the impact extends to streaming media
Human resources platform BambooHR pointed out that
paid leave applications on the day the game was released were nearly 13% higher than comparable dates in 2024 and 2025
. The release time coincides with the week before Thanksgiving, and some players are even preparing to start the holiday early.PwC also pointed out in a special report published this month that this sale will compete for consumers’ time and wallets.
The first to bear the brunt is streaming media: players occupying the living room TV for a long time may squeeze the time for watching dramas during the holidays, and the impact may even last throughout December.
Bart Spiegel, head of PwC's global entertainment and media business, said that as a large number of consumers focus on "GTA VI", he predicts that in the first quarter of 2027, some companies may attribute the weakening of some indicators to the release of this game during the earnings call.
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