According to analysts’ predictions on October 1, the U.S. electric car manufacturer Tesla will deliver 456,722 electric vehicles in the third quarter of this year, which is lower than the 466,140 vehicles delivered in the second quarter, a decrease of 2.02% from the previous quarter. Tesla factory shutdowns and inflation will affect electric vehicle production and shipments. According to foreign media reports, Tesla has broken delivery records for four consecutive quarters, but in the third quarter of this year, one thing affected the delivery volume to continue to rise - the factory shutdown.
This summer, Tesla closed part of its factory for upgrades. Company CEO Elon Musk warned that this would cause production to slow down. Additionally, as inflation continues to hit, it becomes increasingly difficult for consumers to purchase commodities.
Tesla will report third-quarter deliveries as early as Monday. Analysts estimate Tesla delivered 456,722 electric vehicles in the third quarter, down from 466,140 in the second quarter. This would be the first single-quarter delivery decline since early 2022. In recent days, some analysts have lowered their forecasts.
Ben Kallo, an analyst at private equity investment firm Robert W. Baird, wrote in a report to clients this week: "Planned factory shutdowns and market demand issues have Wall Street worried about third-quarter deliveries." Kallo has an outperform rating on Tesla stock, and he expects third-quarter deliveries of 439,200 vehicles.
In January of this year, Musk told investors that the company would produce 2 million vehicles by 2023. Then it said in July that Tesla would maintain its earlier production target of 1.8 million vehicles.
Even as production slows, Tesla is taking steps to maintain high sales. Tesla has been slashing prices all year in response to inflation and high interest rates.
Tesla's best-selling Model Y currently starts at $50,490 in the U.S. market, compared with $65,990 in early 2023. Tesla electric vehicles were a major beneficiary of the Inflation Reduction Act passed about a year ago. Each of Tesla's production models, Model 3 and Model Y, is eligible for a $7,500 federal tax credit.
When Tesla's third-quarter deliveries are released, it will almost certainly mean that U.S. electric vehicle sales have exceeded 1 million this year, which would be the first time in history that the United States has reached this threshold.
Tesla also launched the long-awaited new Model 3 in the third quarter. This is the first time Tesla has made a major upgrade to the Model 3 since it was put into production six years ago.
The new Model 3 has not yet been launched in the United States, and Tesla has not stated when American buyers can see the new Model 3. The new Model 3 is expected to be delivered and exported to European customers starting in the fourth quarter.
Investors and Musk fans are eagerly awaiting the launch of the Tesla Cybertruck electric pickup truck. Pictures of the car are all over social media. However, there is still a long way to go before Cybertruck reaches mass production. Musk said the company will hold a Cybertruck event in Austin, where the first Cybertruck will be delivered to customers, but he did not specify when.
Analysts do not expect the Cybertruck electric pickup to account for a large portion of Tesla deliveries in the short term. They expect production of the complex car to ramp up slowly.
In the meantime, Tesla will likely continue to produce more and more electric vehicles as factory upgrades are completed. Analysts predict that Tesla's annual electric vehicle production will exceed 2 million units by 2024.
"Our current base case forecast is that Tesla will deliver around 2.1 million vehicles next year, compared with the current average estimate of 2.3 million vehicles," Deutsche Bank analyst Emmanuel Rosner wrote. "On the bright side, pricing pressure may ease next year as the company is no longer trying to drive as many volumes."