The 618 Shopping Festival in 2025 will soon be over. If it weren’t for the ongoing national subsidy for home appliances, many people might not even be aware of the existence of this section. In my circle of friends, there are only two types of people who publish 618 information - the first are e-commerce platform practitioners, and the second are media and analysts covering the e-commerce industry. In fact, I also know many people who are engaged in the e-commerce industry chain, from brands to MCNs and even Taobao customers. They have all maintained a collective silence on this 618. When I ask questions, I often get answers like this:
"Oh, is it already 618 so soon? It's true."
"Not very involved, don't care, not important."
"You asked me what changes have occurred in the industry? How can 618 bring any changes to the industry..."
"Traditional e-commerce should have no bright spots, except for state subsidies?"
You can also tell from the frequency of "battle reports" released on major platforms that this year's 618 will not be too good. Although the platform has no longer announced the overall GMV increase during 618 (and Double 11), it will still disclose data for tracks that perform well. Most of the tracks that performed well this year are related to national subsidies, and some are new areas that the platform has entered (such as instant retail). Because these battle reports are too irrelevant to the overall situation, even sell-side analysts rarely forward them. In my impression, the number of 618-themed conference calls held by securities firms this year is also a record low.
Some people may think that the situation of live broadcast e-commerce and social e-commerce may be different. However, one of my Knowledge Planet users expressed the exact opposite view, and I quote his general opinion here:
"I own an online store, and all major platforms have entered it. My obvious feeling is that this year's 618 on Douyin, neither our own nor our peers are as big as before. Alibaba and JD.com can still see the battle reports of small businesses, but Douyin can't even see the battle reports. Merchants have seen clearly over the past few years that Douyin is not a panacea. Only products that meet the attributes of the media crowd and have certain advantages can continue to grow. Although I don't have the data, I feel that the gradual reduction of investment by small businesses is an undercurrent."
(Although he is talking about the situation of Douyin, the difference between other live broadcast e-commerce platforms should not be too big. Of course, this only represents personal opinions and individual cases, and is not necessarily representative.)
If this momentum continues, is it still necessary for 618 to exist? Next year, or in two or three years, will major platforms still engage in 618? In fact, even this year, assuming there is no national subsidy, 618 may fall into the embarrassing situation of existing in name only. However, the national subsidy was not established for 618. On the contrary, 618 must cooperate with the national subsidy.
Back then, 618 originated from the JD.com family, just like Double 11 originated from the Alibaba family. Why has it gradually become a shopping festival attended by the entire Internet? Because the second quarter is the off-season for traditional e-commerce, both platforms and merchants need a stimulus during the long off-season. Double 11 corresponds to the "e-commerce peak season", and 618 corresponds to the "small peak season in the e-commerce off-season", and the two are long enough apart to become the two most important shopping festivals of the year. No matter from the perspective of brands/supply chains or consumers, the "artificial" color of 618 is obviously stronger (and much stronger than a series of shopping festivals at the end of the year). Since it is man-made, it will inevitably bear the brunt of macro-environmental changes.
There is a strange phenomenon during 618 this year: many platforms are combining instant retail subsidies with 618, and even creating an “instant retail shopping festival”. This may be the only difference between this year's 618 and the past, but the logic obviously does not hold water. The so-called shopping festival is the big promotion of the year. It is a time node when merchants provide discounts and users make purchases intensively. The so-called instant retail means that users can satisfy their sudden shopping needs at any time, regardless of whether the demand is rigid or spontaneous. Shopping festivals are naturally used to drive volume, and real-time retail is naturally used to generate high gross profit margins (not necessarily high customer unit prices). How can the two be combined into one?
In fact, the so-called real-time retail shopping festival simply bundles the ongoing real-time retail war between platforms with the 618 Shopping Festival, giving it a certain news value. Just like many cafes that serve ice cream floating on top of hot coffee, ice cream and coffee are still incompatible; if customers don't eat the ice cream quickly, it will melt into the coffee.
My personal opinion is: If the current momentum continues, as consumer habits change and the e-commerce competition landscape solidifies, within a short period of time, there may be only one truly influential shopping festival left in the entire market - Double 11. And even on Double 11, its guiding significance to the entire industry is not as good as before. Now it is difficult for us to see special analysis on 618 in any company’s financial report; in a few years, perhaps even Double 11 will disappear from the financial reports of mainstream companies, whether it is platform or brand sides.
I would like to emphasize one more point: the decline of 618 does not mean that consumption has not recovered, nor does it mean that consumption is not good. I am firmly optimistic about China's consumption potential and believe that there is great potential to boost domestic demand. Furthermore, I am firmly optimistic about the long-term development space of China's economy and support China becoming the world's largest economy. This article is purely to discuss the situation faced by the retail e-commerce industry on June 18 this year. It has no other intention. I believe readers can understand. Thanks!
This article has not been funded or endorsed by any e-commerce platform or brand.
The author of this article took the initiative to place orders on multiple platforms during the 618 period. He firmly supports the strong recovery of domestic demand driven by state subsidies and is resolutely optimistic about the future of China's economy.