According to foreign media reports, market research agency Counterpoint Research predicts in its latest report that global smartphone shipments will decline by 5% year-on-year in 2023, reaching 1.2 billion units, the lowest level in the past decade; in the fourth quarter of 2023, global smartphone shipments are expected to increase by 3% year-on-year, reaching 312 million units; in 2024, global smartphone shipments are expected to increase by 3% year-on-year.
The agency said that smartphone shipments in North America and Europe are expected to remain stagnant, but markets such as China, the Middle East, Africa and India have successfully emerged from recession and will begin to recover from the fourth quarter of 2023, becoming a new driver of smartphone market growth.
The agency said that with its newly launched series of mobile phones, Apple is usually the market leader in the fourth quarter, and sales in the fourth quarter of 2023 are expected to decline by 3% year-on-year, mainly due to Huawei's aggressive domestic expansion and the lengthened smartphone upgrade cycle in Japan. In the fourth quarter of 2022, the iPhone 14 Pro series accounted for 61% of the entire iPhone 14 series shipments. However, in the fourth quarter of 2023, the share of the iPhone 15 Pro series in the iPhone 15 series is expected to increase to 65%.
Driven by the newly launched Mate60 5G series and older P series 4G devices, Huawei achieved great success in the third quarter of 2023. Assuming Huawei can expand Kirin SoC production capacity through partners, the brand is expected to continue to grow by 37% in 2024.
In October this year, Counterpoint data showed that the global smartphone market recorded its worst Q3 performance in 10 years in the third quarter of this year due to sluggish demand for major brands such as Apple and Samsung in most developed markets. In this quarter, global smartphone sales fell by 8% year-on-year, marking the ninth consecutive quarter of year-on-year decline, but increased by 2% quarter-on-quarter. The year-on-year sales decline was mainly due to the slower-than-expected recovery of consumer demand.
At that time, the agency predicted that the global smartphone market would decline in 2023 to reach its lowest level in a decade, mainly due to shifts in device replacement patterns, especially in developed markets.
Last week, Canalys also released a forecast report predicting global smartphone shipments this year and the next four years. The agency predicts that global smartphone shipments will reach 1.13 billion units in 2023, a 5% decrease from 2022; in 2024, the global smartphone market will fully rebound, with shipments reaching 1.17 billion units, an increase of 4% from 2023; in 2027, global smartphone shipments will reach 1.25 billion units, with a compound annual growth rate (from 2023 to 2027) of 2.6%.
Although Canalys expects global smartphone shipments to still fall by 5% in 2023, the downward trend will stabilize as regions such as the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America return to growth of 9%, 3%, and 2% respectively this year. (little fox)