Countries participating in the United Nations COP28 climate conference are considering calling for a phase-out of fossil fuels as part of a final agreement at the summit, a draft negotiating text released on Tuesday showed. Global carbon dioxide emissions from the burning of fossil fuels will hit a record high this year, exacerbating climate change and triggering more damaging extreme weather, a study released on Tuesday showed.
The United Nations climate agency has released a draft of what could become the final deal at COP28, kicking off negotiations on what is considered the decisive issue of the summit: whether countries agree to eventually stop using fossil fuels. The draft text includes three options, which representatives from nearly 200 countries will now consider.
The first option in the draft is listed as “an orderly and equitable phase-out of fossil fuels.” In UN parlance, the word "just" means that wealthy countries with a long history of burning fossil fuels will phase out fossil fuels more quickly than poorer countries currently exploiting their resources. The second option calls for "accelerating efforts to phase out fossil fuels where emissions have not been reduced." The third option is to avoid any mention of phasing out fossil fuels.
The United States, the 27-nation European Union and small island states vulnerable to the impacts of climate change are pushing to phase out fossil fuels to drive significant reductions in carbon dioxide emissions. Scientists say carbon dioxide emissions must fall significantly over the next decade to avoid catastrophic climate change.
Jennifer Morgan, Germany's climate envoy, said: "We are not talking about turning off the tap overnight. What you see here is a real battle about what kind of future energy system we will build together."
The UAE's climate envoy and COP28 summit chairman Sultan Al-Jaber insisted on Monday that he respected the science of climate change and said the phase-out of fossil fuels was "inevitable". "I have said over and over again that the phase-out and phase-out of fossil fuels is inevitable, it is essential," Al-Jaber said.
At the ongoing COP28 climate summit, voices calling for the gradual reduction or even elimination of the use of fossil fuels dominate the mainstream, but some people have clearly expressed their opposition. Major oil and gas producers including Saudi Arabia and Russia have resisted past proposals to phase out fossil fuels.
Saudi Arabia's Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said the kingdom would not agree to phase out fossil fuels, saying he assured that no government truly believed it could be phased out. He also quipped that if someone thinks this is a noble moral choice, let them practice it themselves and others will see how much contribution it can make.
He added that he hopes that anyone who publicly supports the elimination of fossil fuels will publish their names and phone numbers so that someone can call and ask how they will eliminate fossil fuels. Previously, United Nations Secretary-General Guterres said that countries should completely phase out fossil fuels and warned that based on the current climate development trajectory, mankind will face a complete disaster.
The climate action agreement is expected to be released at the end of the COP28 conference on December 12, and its first draft also contains words such as phasing out fossil fuels. But at present, there is no consensus on this point.
The Global Carbon Target report released on Tuesday said carbon dioxide emissions from coal, oil and gas are still rising, driven by India and others. The report, written by scientists from more than 90 institutions, including the University of Exeter, concluded that the total amount of carbon dioxide emitted by countries from fossil fuels is expected to reach 36.8 billion tons by 2023, an increase of 1.1% from last year. Total global emissions are leveling off in 2023 after reaching a record high this year last year, due to slight improvements in land use, including a reduction in deforestation. Emissions including land use will reach 40.9 billion tons this year.
India's rise is the result of electricity demand growing faster than its renewable energy capacity, with fossil fuels filling the gap. This year’s emissions trajectory puts the world further and further away from the goal of preventing global temperatures from rising above 1.5 degrees Celsius before pre-industrial times.
Professor Pierre Friedlingstein of the University of Exeter, who led the study, said: "It now looks inevitable that we will exceed the 1.5°C target set out in the Paris Agreement. Leaders attending the 28th United Nations Climate Change Conference must agree on rapid cuts in fossil fuel emissions, even if it is to maintain the 2°C rise target."