As the American elite who may know China's technology industry best, Musk is not only concerned about the development of China's new energy industry, but is also optimistic about the chip industry. He recently stated that he is optimistic about the development of the next 3-5 years. Musk said on X that if in the next 3-5 years,He would be surprised if domestic chip production could not match Taiwanese companies in raw computing power (albeit slightly less energy-efficiently).

He also said that currently there are significant diminishing returns from shrinking the size of chips, and some things like SRAM simply cannot be scaled.

Judging from his statement, Musk believes that there will be a major breakthrough in domestic chip production in the next 3-5 years, but compared with companies like TSMC, domestic chip energy efficiency will be slightly worse.His implication is that he believes that domestic chip production will still lag behind TSMC in terms of top-notch technology.

This is normal in itself. No one can expect domestic chips to surpass TSMC’s technology in 3-5 years.But this does not prevent domestic chips from leading the world in performance (mainly scale).Loss in energy efficiency means higher energy consumption, but electricity is China’s strength and can make up for the lack of top-notch technology.

For the AI ​​industry, the competition in the future will be cluster capabilities. Even if domestic AI chips are not as capable as NVIDIA on a single chip, the overall performance will be leading after 10,000 cards, 100,000 cards or even millions of cards are interconnected. Huawei's super group has verified this, and other companies will follow suit.

As for the CPU, graphics card, memory, SSD and other chips that ordinary consumers need, domestic graphics cards will definitely not be able to catch up with RTX XX90/80 level graphics cards in the next few years.But there is still a market for XX70-level performance.The CPU cannot catch up with U9 and R9, but U7 and R7-level CPUs can still be used. After all, the flagship market share is not high.